GUR assessed Russia's missile and drone reserves ahead of winter
By October 2026, Russia has accumulated up to 700 ballistic missiles of various types, several thousand cruise missiles and over 6,000 attack drones. At the same time, the Russian defense industrial complex continues to increase the production of weapons used for massive attacks on Ukraine.
This is reported by NV, which received detailed assessments of the Russian missile and drone arsenal as of October from the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
According to GUR, Russia is capable of producing over 200 cruise and ballistic missiles monthly, including about 110 missiles used for strikes along a ballistic trajectory.
The intelligence estimates the reserves of Iskander-M ballistic missiles at approximately 115 units. At the same time, Russian enterprises can produce up to 65 such missiles monthly. In addition, the Russian Federation is working on modernizing the system, which should increase its range from the current approximately 500 to 550-700 kilometers. The completion of development or the receipt of modernized missiles by the troops has not been reported.
Among cruise missiles, the Kh-101 continues to play an important role in Russian strikes. The monthly production plan for them exceeds 80 units.
The reserves of Kalibr sea-launched missiles exceed 450 units, and monthly output is approximately 29 missiles. According to GUR's assessment, due to the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense, Russia directs a significant portion of new Kalibr missiles to the strategic reserve and for equipping fleets.
In addition, Russian troops have up to 400 RM-48U missiles for S-300PM and S-400 systems, adapted for strikes against ground targets. Russia produces about 40 such missiles monthly.
A separate threat is the increase in production of long-range attack drones. According to Ukrainian intelligence estimates, Russia's operational reserve is approximately 6.2 thousand drones of the "Geran" family, including jet modifications.
The total monthly output of Russian drones of various types, including imitator drones, reached 10 thousand units. Since summer, Russian enterprises have focused on the production of jet "Geran-4" and "Geran-5", which, according to GUR data, can be assembled up to 4 thousand per month.
In parallel, the Russian Federation continues to produce up to 2 thousand "Geran-2" drones monthly, as well as hundreds of cheaper imitators "Gerbera". The latter are used to overload Ukrainian air defense and detect its positions.
GUR notes that Russia's state order for the production of "Geran" and imitator drones in 2026 exceeded 100 thousand units. The intelligence regards this as evidence of a long-term Russian strategy to exhaust Ukrainian air defense.
The published figures are estimates of Ukrainian military intelligence. They characterize the reserves and production capabilities of the Russian Federation, but do not allow establishing the number of missiles and drones that the Russian army plans to use during specific future attacks.
Based on materials: NV, Ukrainska Pravda
