Dollar exceeds 45 hryvnias: exchange rate forecast until end of year

The Ukrainian currency market has crossed an important psychological threshold: the official dollar exchange rate has risen above 45 UAH. Pressure on the hryvnia is increasing due to export problems caused by Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, high demand for imports, and delays in receiving international financial assistance. Under these conditions, analysts expect a further gradual weakening of the national currency until the end of 2026.

Why is the dollar exchange rate rising in Ukraine

One of the main reasons for the rise in the price of the American currency remains the shortage of dollar supply on the domestic market. Ukrainian companies need foreign currency to purchase fuel, energy equipment, machinery, and other imported goods. At the same time, export revenues are coming in more slowly than they would under more stable conditions.

The National Bank of Ukraine smooths exchange rate fluctuations through foreign exchange interventions, selling dollars on the interbank market. However, the prolonged high demand for foreign currency makes it difficult for the hryvnia to strengthen.

How Russian strikes affect Ukrainian exports

Russian attacks on ports, railway infrastructure, warehouses, industrial enterprises, and energy facilities have become a serious factor of pressure on the currency market.

The agricultural sector has proven especially vulnerable. Damage to port infrastructure in Odessa region and disruptions in logistics routes hinder the export of grain and other agricultural goods. Exporters are forced to redirect cargo to alternative routes, including through the western border and Danube ports. This increases costs and limits transportation volumes.

According to the NBU's estimate, delays in receiving export revenues from agricultural products could exceed $2 billion in the second half of 2026. Part of the deliveries may be postponed to the first half of 2027, meaning this is not only about a possible loss of income but also about its later receipt.

Problems also affect industrial exports. Russian strikes on production facilities and energy infrastructure lead to plant shutdowns, reduced output, and additional costs for equipment restoration. This is particularly sensitive for metallurgy, which remains one of Ukraine's sources of foreign currency earnings.

As a result, there is double pressure on the hryvnia: the country receives less export currency at the right time, but continues to need dollars to pay for imports.

Delays in international assistance increase pressure on the hryvnia

The second important factor is delays in receiving international financing. External aid allows Ukraine to cover a significant portion of budget expenditures without resorting to excessive domestic borrowing or monetary financing of the deficit.

However, fulfillment of obligations to international partners and necessary legislative decisions affect the timing of individual tranches. In October, the Ministry of Finance reported that Ukraine had not received a significant part of the expected funding that was planned to be received in August–September.

According to Reuters, delays in international support are related, in particular, to the need to adopt reforms and fulfill agreed conditions. Against the backdrop of military spending, this increases the burden on the state budget.

It is important to note that international assistance does not always go directly to the currency market for sale. Nevertheless, its timely receipt reduces budget financing risks, supports international reserves, and strengthens confidence in the country's financial stability.

If the receipt of funds is prolonged, the government has to adjust spending and look for additional sources of financing. Combined with reduced export revenues, this creates additional risks for the hryvnia exchange rate.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for the end of 2026

Previously published analyst forecasts assumed further moderate appreciation of the dollar:

These estimates were published in early October and reflect forecasts at that time, not a guaranteed exchange rate for the end of the year.

The baseline scenario assumes that the NBU will continue to smooth currency market fluctuations, and international partners will maintain financial support for Ukraine. In that case, the dollar may appreciate gradually, without sharp jumps.

However, risks to the hryvnia remain. If Russian strikes continue to limit exports, international financing is delayed, and import demand remains high, pressure on the dollar exchange rate could intensify. More timely receipt of aid, restoration of logistics, and increased export revenues, on the contrary, could curb devaluation.

What will happen to the hryvnia until the end of the year

Crossing the 45 UAH per dollar mark is an important psychological signal for the Ukrainian currency market, but it does not in itself mean an inevitable sharp collapse of the hryvnia.

In the coming months, key factors will be the volume of NBU foreign exchange interventions, the export situation, the timing of receiving international financial assistance, and the import needs of Ukrainian businesses.

Conclusion: the dollar exchange rate forecast for Ukraine at the end of 2026 remains dependent on military and financial risks. While analytical estimates point to a possible movement towards 45.50–46.60 UAH per dollar, further dynamics will be determined by how quickly export flows can be restored and timely receipt of external financing ensured.