After the war ends, Ukraine can expect only about a third of its citizens who went abroad to return. The longer the hostilities continue, the fewer Ukrainians plan to return, as they gradually settle in their new locations, find work, and ensure education for their children.

This was stated on October 26 by Ella Libanova, director of the Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, during the Kyiv International Economic Forum, reports Ukrinform.

According to the demographer's estimate, about 5 million citizens are currently outside Ukraine. According to Eurostat data she cited, as of June 30, 2026, 4.4 million Ukrainians were under temporary protection in European Union countries. Another approximately 600 thousand lived outside the EU, mainly in Canada, the United Kingdom, and Moldova.

About a third of Ukrainians who went abroad are children and adolescents under 18 years old. Meanwhile, the share of people over 65 is only 6%.

Libanova reminded that in 2022 it was possible to predict the return of about half of Ukrainian refugees. However, after more than four years of full-scale war, the prospects have changed significantly.

Now, according to her estimate, Ukraine can expect the return of approximately every third forced migrant. This is a preliminary demographic estimate, not a guaranteed number of people who will return after the war.

One of the main reasons for the decline in the number of potential returnees is the successful adaptation of Ukrainians abroad. According to Libanova, among women aged 20 to 64 who left, about 70% are already working.

Many Ukrainian families have learned the language of the host country, found permanent jobs, and their children have started attending local schools, kindergartens, and universities. In such conditions, the decision to return becomes increasingly difficult, especially if housing in Ukraine has been destroyed or there are no suitable jobs.

The demographer also warned of the risk of a new wave of emigration after the war ends and the restrictions on men leaving are lifted.

In her opinion, some demobilized servicemen may decide to move to their families who have already settled abroad. An additional factor will be the difference between wages in Ukraine's civilian sector and the incomes that men can expect abroad.

Thus, after the war ends, Ukraine may face not only the problem of refugee return but also a further outflow of the working-age population.

Previously Kurs.com.ua reported that the population in the territory controlled by Ukraine as of mid-2026 is estimated at 28.5 million people. Compared to previous estimates, the figure decreased by approximately 500 thousand. Demographers cited migration as the main reason for the decline.

Based on materials: Ukrinform, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.