NBU forecasts billions in losses due to problems with sea exports

Direct losses from export revenue shortfalls in the second half of 2026 as a result of the halt to sea exports from Ukraine will exceed 2 billion US dollars, according to Економічна правда.

This is stated in the inflation report of the National Bank (NBU).

"Just as in previous phases of the blockade, Ukraine redirects freight flows to alternative routes: railways, road transport, and Danube ports," — the National Bank writes.

At the same time, the throughput capacity of these routes is insufficient: whereas Ukraine usually exported 4–4.5 million tonnes of agricultural products per month, the alternative routes can only ensure the export of 2.5 million tonnes per month.

This applies to the period August–October, because the water level in the Danube dropped due to drought and limited its throughput capacity. From November, the pace of exports will increase, the NBU writes.

The rerouting of logistics will increase the costs in the agrisector for storing and transporting products, and the direct losses from revenue shortfall will reach 2 billion dollars.

At the same time, the National Bank expects that these volumes will be exported during the first half of 2027, which will offset the negative effect.

"Thanks to developed alternative routes and the experience of farmers, the situation remains more controllable than during the blockade of 2022," — sums up the NBU.

Reminder:

As previously reported, on 23 July, vessel traffic to Ukraine’s Black Sea ports was suspended due to the threat of Russian attacks. This was preceded by weeks of air attacks on Ukrainian Black Sea ports.

As a result of Russian pressure on the Ukrainian maritime corridor, Ukrainian traders began to redirect part of the wheat and other cargoes to the Danube, however, on the whole, exporters are not ready to compensate the loss of the sea channel at any cost and are waiting things out.