spending outpaced revenue: Russia’s budget deficit reaches 6.5 trillion rubles

Russia’s federal budget deficit for January–July 2026 widened to 6.46 trillion rubles, or 2.8% of GDP. In July alone the gap between revenue and expenditure grew by about 724 billion rubles, even though the rising global oil price brought extra inflows to the Russian treasury.

According to the Russian Finance Ministry, in the first seven months of the year the budget received 22.11 trillion rubles in revenue, 8.8% more than in the same period a year earlier. At the same time, expenditure expanded much faster, reaching 28.57 trillion rubles and increasing by 14.5%. As a result, the accumulated deficit was roughly 40% higher than the figure for the corresponding period of 2025.

The actual deficit is already 1.7 times larger than the 3.79 trillion rubles projected in the current budget for the whole of 2026. Russia’s Finance Ministry puts the high figure down to accelerated spending and advance payments under government contracts.

Public procurement is swelling especially fast. From January to July, 8.44 trillion rubles were allocated for it, 39.2% more than a year earlier – this is already over 80% of the amount earmarked for such outlays for the whole year. Bloomberg links the ongoing pressure on the budget, among other things, to large government spending against the backdrop of the continuing war against Ukraine.

However, July turned out to be a much more successful month for Russia’s oil and gas revenues. They reached 934 billion rubles, up 36.6% from June and up 18.6% compared with July last year. The gain was driven by higher oil prices amid the war with Iran and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, as well as some specific features of oil companies’ tax payments.

Yet July’s jump has not offset the weak results seen at the start of the year. Over seven months, oil and gas revenues of the Russian budget amounted to roughly 4.6 trillion rubles, 16.8% less than in the same period of 2025. Non-oil-and-gas revenues, on the contrary, rose by 18.3%, reaching 17.52 trillion rubles.

Thus even energy‑commodity tailwinds so far are not enough to cover the rapid growth in government expenditures. After recording a surplus in June, the federal budget swung back to a monthly deficit in July, and the accumulated revenue‑expenditure gap continued to widen.

Source: Bloomberg, Russian Finance Ministry