Iran and the US Have Failed to Revive the Interim Agreement

Iran and the US have so far failed to make progress on restoring the interim ceasefire agreement and moving toward negotiations on a final settlement. The sides continue to exchange positions through intermediaries, but key differences remain unresolved, a senior Iranian source told Reuters.

According to the source, the sides are currently discussing, through intermediaries, a possible return of Washington to the interim agreement and the determination of specific deadlines for fulfilling its obligations. The Iranian side claims that there is no progress on this issue so far. Reuters has not received immediate comment from the US administration.

Tehran denies reports of extending the agreement

The Iranian source also denied Anadolu's report that Tehran and Washington had allegedly agreed to extend the 60-day period provided for by the arrangements. The Turkish agency cited sources in the Pakistani government.

Tehran believes that it is incorrect to talk about extending this period because, according to the Iranian side, the countdown of the period stipulated by the agreement has not actually begun. Iran accuses the US of violating the agreements shortly after they were concluded and then abandoning them. This is Tehran's position; Washington, in turn, blames Iran for the breakdown of the arrangements.

The interim memorandum was concluded in mid-June with the mediation of Pakistan and Qatar. The document provided for a ceasefire and a 60-day period, which the sides could extend by mutual agreement. During this time, the US and Iran were supposed to try to reach a final agreement, including on Iran's nuclear program and American sanctions.

The Strait of Hormuz remains the main point of contention

One of the main obstacles remains shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The US claims that Iran has not fulfilled the obligations under the memorandum to ensure the safe passage of commercial vessels. The US administration has said that in early July, the Iranian side attacked several neutral commercial vessels, after which the US resumed strikes on targets in Iran.

Tehran makes counter-accusations. Iran demands the lifting of the blockade of its ports, the ability to export oil, and the unblocking of frozen assets abroad. Previously, the Iranian Foreign Ministry has stated that the implementation of these provisions is a prerequisite for moving to negotiations on a final agreement.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also said that direct negotiations with the US are not currently taking place. At the same time, the sides continue to convey messages to each other through Pakistan and Qatar.

Risks to the oil market have intensified again

The lack of diplomatic progress has coincided with a new escalation around key maritime routes in the region. On August 11, reports emerged of new attacks and incidents involving commercial vessels in the Gulf of Oman and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Against this backdrop, oil prices rose: Brent closed at around $88.91 per barrel, while US WTI closed at around $83.20.

The Strait of Hormuz remains critically important for the global energy market: before the current conflict, about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies passed through it. Therefore, the continued confrontation between the US and Iran and the absence of an agreement on free navigation keep risks to supplies and global energy prices high.

Sources: Reuters, White House, Iranian Foreign Ministry