Iran may go on the offensive if talks with the US fail
Iran is ready to intensify military actions in the Strait of Hormuz and other countries in the region if diplomatic efforts to settle the conflict with the US fail. Tehran is considering a shift from a predominantly reactive strategy to an offensive one.
This was reported by Reuters on August 17, citing a senior Iranian official.
According to him, Tehran is ready for escalation because it does not consider it realistic to rely indefinitely on mediators and does not intend to tolerate the American naval blockade indefinitely.
The statement was made on the day of the expiration of the 60-day period provided for by the memorandum between the US and Iran of June 17. The parties were supposed to use this time to develop a permanent agreement, but negotiations remain deadlocked. One of the main contentious issues is the future shipping regime through the Strait of Hormuz.
The US demands free passage for commercial vessels along all routes without fees and attacks. Iran, on the contrary, insists on retaining the right to control movement, determine routes and, under certain conditions, restrict the passage of vessels. Tehran previously warned that it is ready to seek recognition of such an order by force if it is not possible to reach an agreement diplomatically.
At the same time, Iran is negotiating with Oman, which controls the southern shore of the strait. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said on August 17 that the parties have already agreed on a map of the proposed route for vessel movement and are working on a joint statement. It is tentatively assumed that ships will be able to pass through the strait without fees during a transitional period.
The shipping situation remains tense. According to Kpler data cited by Reuters, on Saturday only five vessels carrying commodity goods passed through the Strait of Hormuz, and no such passages were recorded on Sunday. Over the previous weekend, 31 ships passed through the route.
Before the start of the war, about a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Military actions and shipping restrictions have already repeatedly led to sharp fluctuations in energy prices and forced Gulf exporters to look for alternative routes.
Washington and Tehran have already resumed strikes several times after attempts to agree on a ceasefire. At the end of July, both sides again suspended attacks, but a final agreement was not reached. Iran then said it would observe the pause as long as the US also refrains from strikes.
