Kuleba sees no signs of a quick end to the war in Ukraine

Former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba stated that he currently sees no signs indicating a quick end to the Russian-Ukrainian war. In his assessment, for the cessation of hostilities, fundamental changes must occur that would deprive one of the sides of the ability or desire to continue the war.

Kuleba spoke about this in an interview with “Novyny.LIVE”.

The former head of Ukrainian diplomacy identified three main factors that could bring the war to an end: one side losing the will to continue fighting, a significant reduction in external support, or the loss of financial ability to continue hostilities.

According to Kuleba, there are no sufficient grounds to consider that at least one of these factors will become decisive in the near future.

First factor – the will to continue the war

One of the main conditions for ending the war, Kuleba named the loss of political and public will to continue fighting. As long as the leadership and society of one of the warring sides are ready to bear further costs and consider continuing the confrontation necessary, the war can continue even with serious losses.

In fact, it is not only about the situation directly on the battlefield. The state's ability to wage war also depends on the readiness of its leadership to accept further losses, mobilize resources, and maintain public support for the chosen course.

According to Kuleba's assessment, there are currently no obvious signs that one of the sides is already at a stage where the will to continue the confrontation is exhausted.

Second factor – support from partners

Another key condition, according to the former minister, is external support. For Ukraine, assistance from partners remains one of the most important resources necessary for the country's defense.

This is not only about arms supplies. International support includes financial, political, and economic assistance that allows the state to function during a full-scale war.

According to Kuleba's logic, a serious change in the scale of such support can directly affect the side's ability to continue the war. However, the mere emergence of individual diplomatic initiatives does not mean that this factor has already changed enough to lead to a rapid cessation of hostilities.

Third factor – money to continue the war

The third condition, Kuleba named the ability to finance the war. Modern hostilities require enormous expenditures on armaments, maintaining the army, production and procurement of equipment, ammunition, drones, and ensuring the functioning of the entire state system.

If one of the sides loses the financial ability to sustain the war at the current scale, this could significantly change the situation and push it to seek other options.

However, in the opinion of the former minister, there are no grounds to expect that the financial factor alone will lead to the end of the war in the near future.

Kuleba does not expect a quick finale

Thus, Kuleba considers expectations of a quick end to the Russian-Ukrainian war premature. For this, in his assessment, statements about negotiations or the political desire of individual states to achieve a cessation of hostilities are not enough.

Basic conditions must change that allow one of the sides to continue the war: its willingness to fight, the volume of external support, or the ability to pay for further confrontation.

At the same time, Kuleba's assessment is his personal political and diplomatic forecast. He does not hold a position in the current government of Ukraine and does not speak on behalf of the Ukrainian authorities.

Dmytro Kuleba headed the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine from 2020 to 2024. After leaving the government, he continues to publicly comment on the war, international politics, and prospects for diplomatic settlement.