AfD could show record result in elections in Germany
The far-right "Alternative for Germany" (AfD) maintains a confident lead ahead of the elections to the state parliament of Saxony-Anhalt. According to the latest ARD poll, a week and a half before the vote, 42% of voters are ready to support the party—almost twice as many as the ruling Christian Democratic Union.
The Sachsen-Anhalt-Trend poll was conducted by Infratest dimap. This is the last ARD survey before the state parliament elections, which will take place on September 6.
Compared to the previous poll at the end of July, support for the AfD increased by one percentage point—from 41% to 42%. If this result is confirmed at the elections, the party will approximately double its 2021 result and show the best AfD result in state elections in the party's history.
The CDU of Prime Minister of Saxony-Anhalt Sven Schulze, on the contrary, continues to lose support. The party gets 22%—two points less than in July. For the Christian Democrats, this is a historically low figure in this federal state.
The other parties lag significantly behind the two leaders. The Left party can count on 11%, the Social Democratic Party of Germany on 8%, and the Greens on 6%.
The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, with 4%, does not yet cross the five-percent threshold for entering the state parliament. The Free Democratic Party gets 3% and also risks being left without mandates.
AfD still lacks votes for a single-party government
Despite the large lead over competitors, current figures do not guarantee the AfD an absolute majority of seats in parliament. In such a configuration, forming a government without the party could be extremely difficult.
If the AfD remains outside the coalition, the CDU will likely need the support of all other parties that enter the state parliament, including the Left, to form a majority.
This creates a separate problem for the Christian Democrats: the federal CDU adheres to the decision on the incompatibility of cooperation with both the AfD and the Left.
At the same time, the idea of a government led by the CDU with the support of the Left is not particularly popular among the region's residents. In the poll, 40% of respondents rated such an arrangement as bad, and another 19% as rather bad. 32% of respondents view it positively or rather positively.
AfD and CDU almost tied in the race for the premiership
A significantly smaller gap is observed when residents of Saxony-Anhalt are asked not about parties, but about the future leadership of the state.
To the question of which party should lead the next state government, 42% named the AfD, and 41% the CDU.
In a hypothetical direct vote for prime minister, the incumbent head of government Sven Schulze of the CDU retains a slight advantage—41% of respondents would choose him. The AfD candidate Ulrich Siegmund would be supported by 39%.
In practice, residents of the state do not directly elect the prime minister—after the elections, the new parliament's deputies choose him.
The elections on September 6 are of nationwide importance for Germany. The state office for the protection of the constitution classifies the AfD's regional branch in Saxony-Anhalt as confirmed right-wing extremist. A party victory with around 42% would be the AfD's largest electoral success at the state level.
The poll was conducted on August 24–25 among 1,511 voters in Saxony-Anhalt using telephone and online interviews. For large parties, the statistical margin of error is about three percentage points.
Based on: Tagesschau, MDR / Tagesschau
