Dollar hits new monthly low: why the fall may soon stop

On Friday, August 28, the National Bank set the following official exchange rates: - US dollar – 44.5445 UAH (-0.0272 UAH from the official rate for Thursday, August 27); - euro – 51.8578 UAH (-0.1502 UAH from the official rate for Thursday, August 27).

Rates were set at 16:00 on August 27 and reflect the following trends:

1. At the start of trading on Thursday on the interbank currency market, non-cash dollar quotes went down, as the National Bank immediately joined the sellers. As a result, the price dropped to 44.515 UAH on the bid – a new monthly low. The average deal price at 12:00 was 44.5413 UAH – 5.5 kopecks lower than on Wednesday. Low prices attracted buyers, and after 12:00 quotes smoothly went up, rising to 44.65 UAH on the bid by the close of trading. The average deal price by the end of the day slightly increased, but still was lower than the previous day, so the National Bank lowered the official dollar rate for Friday by 2.7 kopecks.

2. The euro on the international FOREX market today traded in a narrow range of 1.1636-1.1660 dollars. At the time of fixing, the euro was sold at 1.16418 dollars – 26.6 points lower than on Wednesday (1.16684 dollars). The decline of the euro on FOREX coincided with the lowering of the official dollar rate, so the NBU lowered the official euro rate for tomorrow by 15 kopecks at once.

Cash market prices went up today, reflecting the emerging demand for cash currency. In Dnipro, the dollar rose by 2 kopecks, in Odesa – by 4, and in Kyiv, Kharkiv and Lviv – by 5 kopecks. It seems the cash market has found a “bottom” – a level below which the dollar is unlikely to fall in August.