Europe is experiencing a critical shortage of Patriot missiles due to the war with Iran
Stockpiles of American Patriot interceptor missiles in Europe have dwindled to a critically low level due to intense ammunition consumption in the US war with Iran. The most severe shortage concerns missiles designed to intercept ballistic targets, an American military official in Europe and a NATO representative told the Associated Press.
According to the American official, the interceptor stockpile situation has already gone beyond “critical.” The NATO representative also confirmed to the agency that the number of Patriot missiles held by American and allied forces in Europe is at a low level.
The AP’s sources spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of information about weapons stockpiles. The Pentagon declined to disclose their volumes, citing security considerations.
Missiles from Europe were transferred to the Middle East
The main reason for the shortage was the ongoing US war with Iran. Part of the American missile stockpiles previously stationed in Europe was sent to the Middle East, where the US and its allies are expending a significant number of interceptors against Iranian missiles and drones.
Deliveries to Ukraine have also reduced American Patriot stockpiles, but experts believe that the war with Iran was the turning point. Ed Arnold, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, noted that aid to Ukraine had been planned in advance and was relatively controlled, whereas interceptor expenditure in the Middle East proved significantly higher than expected.
Over the years of the full-scale war, the US has transferred hundreds of Patriot missiles to Ukraine. Kyiv has repeatedly stressed that these systems remain one of the primary means of intercepting Russian ballistic missiles.
According to NATO, the PURL mechanism created in 2025 now supplies the bulk of American missiles for Ukrainian air defense systems. In July, the Alliance reported that through this program Ukraine had received about 75% of the missiles for its Patriot batteries.
In the event of a Russian attack, capabilities may be insufficient
According to the American military official’s assessment, the current Patriot stockpiles in Europe are insufficient to repel a sustained Russian ballistic missile attack. He described the ability to defend against even a single missile strike or an accidentally stray Russian missile as “very limited.”
The problem is particularly sensitive because European countries lack large numbers of alternative systems capable of effectively intercepting modern ballistic missiles. Such targets travel at high speed and require specialized missile defense assets.
One alternative is the Franco-Italian SAMP/T system and its upgraded version SAMP/T NG. However, the new generation of the complex has not yet undergone full combat testing, and existing versions are inferior to Patriot in certain characteristics.
At the same time, NATO officially disputes the assessment of the situation as “beyond critical.” The Alliance’s senior military representative, US Army Colonel Martin O'Donnell, stated that the claim of such a level of shortage does not correspond to reality.
According to him, NATO possesses sufficient air defense capabilities both to protect the territory of Alliance member states and to continue supporting Ukraine.
The US also faces shortages of other missiles
According to AP, the problem is not limited to Patriot. American forces in Europe are also experiencing a serious shortage of ATACMS ballistic missiles designed to strike targets deep in enemy defenses.
At the same time, the situation with offensive weapons is considered less difficult, since European states have their own long-range systems, including Storm Shadow and Taurus cruise missiles.
Patriot stockpiles are planned to be restored through increased production. The first European production line for Patriot missiles is being prepared for launch in Germany. The facility is expected to begin operations in September, with initial deliveries possibly starting in early 2027.
Back in 2024, the NATO Support and Procurement Agency concluded a contract worth about $5.5 billion for the acquisition of up to 1,000 Patriot missiles for Germany, the Netherlands, Romania, Spain and other allies. The contract provides for expansion of production in Europe and replenishment of national stockpiles.
However, until a significant increase in missile output is achieved, allies will have to distribute the limited number of interceptors among their own needs, support for Ukraine, and operations in the Middle East.
Sources: Associated Press, NATO
