Fears of a new mobilization mount in Russia after State Duma elections
Fears of a new wave of mobilization in Russia are growing after the September elections to the State Duma. Against this backdrop, residents of Penza Oblast report forced recruitment of men into the army and have begun forming groups to counter such raids, writes Politico.
At the same time, passenger traffic through the Russian-Georgian border has increased. More than 113,000 people and over 33,000 vehicles passed through the Verkhny Lars checkpoint in a week. These figures, however, include movement in both directions and do not mean that all 113,000 were leaving Russia.
Large car queues formed on some sections of the border. The situation is reminiscent of September 2022, when, after Vladimir Putin announced a "partial mobilization," many Russians tried to leave the country via Georgia, Kazakhstan, and other states.
Raids reported in Penza Oblast
Another factor fueling concern has been events in Penza Oblast. Since June, local residents, independent media, and anti-war organizations have reported raids by security forces and military enlistment officers. Men are stopped on streets, roads, and in public transport and brought to military commissariats.
Human rights activists and relatives of some of those detained claim that men were pressured into signing contracts with Russia's Defense Ministry. Penza authorities deny accusations of coercing people into the war and say law enforcement is searching for draft evaders and people who violated military registration rules.
By August, opposition to such raids began to take on an organized character. As Politico writes, groups have appeared in Penza Oblast that track the movements of presumed recruiters, film them on video, note license plate numbers, and help men threatened with detention.
In the settlement of Bashmakovo, local residents, according to the publication, have formed what amounts to a self-defense group. Another community created by Penza blogger Stanislav Morozov has gathered about 1,500 participants and provides assistance to people facing detention and pressure.
Russia lacks contract soldiers
Fears of a new mobilization are mounting amid problems fulfilling plans for recruiting contract soldiers. For 2026, Russian authorities hope to attract about 409,000 people.
According to Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service, by early July Russia had recruited about 195,000 contract soldiers against an interim plan of 204,500. The average daily rate was roughly 1,070–1,090 people, insufficient to fulfil the annual target.
Moscow is trying to offset the shortfall by raising regional payouts, lowering requirements for candidates, and expanding categories of potential contract soldiers. In some regions administrative pressure on men has also intensified as authorities seek to bring them into service.
No official decision on a new mass mobilization has yet been announced in Russia. Russian authorities publicly deny the need for such a step. In late July, Deputy Chairman of Russia's Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said reports about preparations for mobilization were untrue.
However, Politico notes that at the same time authorities are improving the system for registering those liable for military service, expanding the use of electronic draft notices, and collecting additional information on reservists. Human rights activists record a growing number of inquiries from draft-age men trying to find out their rights or prepare for possible restrictions.
Additional uncertainty is created by the September State Duma elections. Ukrainian intelligence has previously allowed that Moscow may make a political decision on additional mobilization only after the vote. There is no final confirmation yet that Vladimir Putin has actually decided to announce a new wave of mass conscription.
Based on materials from: Politico, SOVA, Meduza, Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine
