Hryvnia held its ground at the end of the month, but the dollar may resume growth as early as next week
For Monday, August 31, the National Bank set the following official exchange rates: - US dollar – 44.5505 UAH (+0.006 UAH to the official rate for Friday, August 28); - euro – 51.8804 UAH (+0.0226 UAH to the official rate for Friday, August 28).
The rates were set at 16:00 on August 28 and reflect the following trends:
1. The approach of the end of the month prompted sellers of non-cash currency to become more active on the interbank foreign exchange market. The market again saw a supply-demand imbalance, which led to a decline in dollar quotations to 44.53-44.54 UAH on the bid side. At 12:00, the National Bank appeared on the market and joined the sellers. As a result, the price dropped to 44.45 UAH on the bid side – a new monthly low. After the National Bank left, quotations went up and by the close of trading rose by 10 kopecks from the daily low. The average price of deals by the end of the day differed little from yesterday's. The National Bank raised the official dollar rate for Monday by literally 0.6 kopecks.
2. The speech by US Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh at the symposium in the American town of Jackson Hole, as well as the release of encouraging data from the University of Michigan, which showed an increase in the sentiment index and the consumer expectations index in the US, caused a sharp rise in the US dollar on the international FOREX market against major world currencies. The euro fell to 1.1585 dollars, a decline of 75 points from the daily peak. However, at the time of fixing, the euro was sold at 1.16453 dollars – 3.5 points higher than on Thursday (1.16418 dollars), so the NBU raised the official euro rate for Monday by 2.2 kopecks. The euro's fall will be reflected in its rate in Ukraine as early as Monday.
On the cash market today, the situation remained calm, with no pronounced upward or downward trend. This is also indicated by the changes over the day: in Dnipro, the dollar rose by 3 kopecks, in Kharkiv and Odesa it fell by 2 kopecks, in Lviv it fell by 3 kopecks, and in Kyiv it remained at the same level. These minor fluctuations confirm the theory that the cash market has found a 'bottom'. And only the end-of-month factor, which traditionally supports the national currency, is still holding the dollar back from resuming growth, which we may see as early as next week.
