Ukraine's budget received 2.5 trillion UAH in six months: Accounting Chamber named key risks
In the first half of 2026, the state budget of Ukraine received 2.5 trillion UAH, but until the end of the year there remain risks of a shortfall in some revenues and the need to find additional funds primarily for defense.
These conclusions were made by the Accounting Chamber after analyzing the state budget execution for January–June. The auditors note that the actual economic conditions significantly diverged from those on which the budget plan was based.
The budget received 2.5 trillion UAH, but receipts are uneven
For the entire 2026, state budget revenues are planned at almost 6 trillion UAH.
One of the problems of the first half of the year was the irregularity of international financing. For example, 262.1 billion UAH that was expected in June under the European support mechanism for Ukraine's defense capabilities and security actually came only in July.
Therefore, a simple comparison of half of the annual plan with receipts for six months does not show the full picture: significant amounts of international assistance may move between reporting periods.
The Accounting Chamber sees a risk of under-collection of some revenues
Several factors are simultaneously exerting pressure on budget revenues.
- VAT reimbursement increased by 33.3 billion UAH;
- customs payments were 8.5 billion UAH below the planned level;
- tax debt increased by 7.7 billion UAH;
- the volume of overpayments of taxes and fees, which may reduce revenues in the following periods, grew.
According to the Accounting Chamber's assessment, the combination of these factors creates a risk that by the end of the year certain types of revenues may be about 9% below the expected level.
This refers specifically to individual revenue items, not to a forecast of a 9% drop in all state budget revenues.
The main additional need is money for the military
State budget expenditures for the first half of the year amounted to 2 trillion 832 billion UAH.
Of this amount, 1 trillion 957.3 billion UAH was allocated to the main spending units of the security and defense sector. Another 670.7 billion UAH was spent on remuneration of military personnel.
However, the funding approved for the year may prove insufficient.
The Accounting Chamber estimates the additional need for funds for military allowances by the end of 2026 at 265 billion UAH beyond the amount provided for in the current budget.
The auditors recommend that the government clarify the required amount and determine the sources of its financing.
International borrowing fell short of the plan by almost 500 billion UAH
The gap in budget financing was particularly noticeable.
In six months, Ukraine received 704.6 billion UAH for state budget financing. This is almost 500 billion UAH, or 41.5%, less than the amount planned for this period.
The main reason is a lower-than-expected volume of external government borrowings and a change in the schedule for receiving international assistance.
Part of this gap had to be compensated domestically. Domestic borrowings exceeded the plan by 33.2%, and to cover temporary cash gaps, 204.4 billion UAH was taken from the single treasury account, although the initial plan for the first half of the year did not envisage such a source.
State debt approached 9.5 trillion UAH
In the first half of the year, Ukraine's state and state-guaranteed debt increased by 448.1 billion UAH, or 5%, and reached 9 trillion 490.8 billion UAH.
The growth is explained both by the excess of new borrowings over repayments and by changes in exchange rates.
At the same time, the share of debt denominated in foreign currency increased from 76.4% to 80%.
This increases foreign exchange risk: a weakening of the hryvnia automatically increases the hryvnia equivalent of such debt and budget expenditures on servicing it.
The economy barely grew
Another problem is that economic indicators turned out to be significantly weaker than the forecasts used in drafting the budget.
According to the Accounting Chamber's assessment, Ukraine's real GDP in the first half of the year increased by less than 0.1%, while the budget was based on an annual growth forecast of 2.4%.
The economy was affected by infrastructure destruction, restrictions in the energy sector, logistical problems, and labor shortages.
At the same time, imports of goods and services increased by 21.7%, while exports grew by only 5.2%. The negative trade balance reached $35.6 billion — already 80.1% of the amount forecast for the whole year.
Investment projects lag far behind the plan
The problem is not only a lack of money. The state is not able to use part of the resources already provided for in the budget.
For public investment projects in the first half of the year, 62.4 billion UAH was planned, but actual expenditures and lending amounted to only 16.1 billion UAH.
This is 74.3% less than the plan.
Among the reasons, the Accounting Chamber cites delays in management decisions, procurement and document approval, the impact of the security situation, and the loss of relevance of individual projects.
What the Accounting Chamber proposes to change
Based on the audit results, the auditors recommended that the government and the Ministry of Finance adjust budget decisions in view of the actual situation.
- update the revenue forecast taking into account the risk of under-receipts;
- find sources of additional funds for payments to military personnel;
- ensure timely receipt of international financing;
- review programs that are systematically underperformed and direct funds to priority needs;
- accelerate the use of loans for public investment projects;
- prevent the reserve fund from being used for purposes for which it is not intended.
Thus, 2.5 trillion UAH in revenues for six months in itself does not mean that there are no problems with budget execution. The main risks for the second half of 2026 are the need for additional military financing, dependence on the schedule of international assistance, weak economic growth, and a high foreign currency share in the state debt.
