Bloomberg: Europe sees no signs Russia is preparing to attack NATO
European intelligence services currently have no evidence that Russia is preparing a conventional military attack on NATO countries, including the Baltic states. This assessment diverges from the most alarming versions that emerged after the surprise visit of CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Moscow.
Bloomberg reports this, citing European officials.
According to them, the current intelligence picture does not indicate that Russia is preparing a major military operation against Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania. In particular, no large-scale buildup of Russian troops and equipment comparable to Moscow's preparations for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2021–2022 is observed near the borders of the Baltic states.
Against this backdrop, European representatives are skeptical of the assumption that Ratcliffe's trip to the Russian capital in itself indicated that the United States had data on an imminent Russian attack on NATO.
Alarming theories emerged after CIA chief's visit
Ratcliffe visited Moscow on August 25 and held talks with representatives of Russian intelligence services. American media subsequently reported that the CIA chief warned the Russian side against escalation against US NATO allies, primarily Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
Following these reports, assumptions arose that Washington may have received intelligence about Moscow preparing a limited military operation aimed at testing NATO's readiness to fulfill its Article 5 collective defense commitments.
However, European officials interviewed by Bloomberg said their own threat assessments had not changed significantly.
Previously, representatives of Estonia and Latvia also stressed that they do not see signs of Russia preparing for a full-scale invasion. Tallinn noted that the Russian threat and possible provocations must be taken seriously, but there are no grounds to compare the current situation with late 2021.
Risk of limited and hybrid attacks remains
At the same time, the absence of signs of preparation for a major invasion does not mean that European countries rule out other scenarios of Russian aggression.
NATO countries' intelligence and military structures continue to warn of the risk of sabotage, cyberattacks, drone attacks, border provocations, and actions against critical infrastructure.
Earlier, European officials reported possible Russian operations against Poland and the Baltic states, including the use of drones and "false flag" methods. Such actions require significantly less preparation than a full-scale military invasion.
The Institute for the Study of War also noted that there are currently no signs of a major Russian military buildup near the Baltic states. At the same time, analysts allowed that Russia could theoretically attempt a more limited operation—for example, a missile or drone strike, or a small ground incursion—to test NATO's response.
Thus, the European assessment at the moment amounts to a lack of evidence that Russia is preparing a large-scale attack on NATO, although the risk of hybrid and limited provocations is still considered high.
