The US is preparing a new strategy for the Middle East after the war with Iran
The administration of US President Donald Trump has begun developing a new strategy for the Middle East after the end of the war with Iran. The plan is intended to unite Washington's regional allies to deter Tehran and at the same time expand normalization of relations between Israel and Arab countries.
Two American officials and two other sources familiar with the discussions told Axios about this. According to them, the document is still in the early stages of development and is intended to define American policy in the region for the remainder of Trump's presidential term.
Work on the strategy is simultaneously going on at a high political level within the administration and between various American agencies. In recent weeks, Trump has held at least two meetings with senior advisers at which the future architecture of the Middle East was discussed and various options for US actions were considered.
According to Axios sources, in private conversations Trump has said that after the war with Iran he is working on "something much bigger" for the region. The White House declined to officially comment on the strategy's development.
The US wants to create a regional deterrence system against Iran
The first key element of the plan under consideration is the creation of a closer union of American allies in the Middle East to deter Iran.
It is assumed that the US would act as a guarantor of such a regional system. It is not yet known which countries will be part of it and what commitments they will be willing to assume.
One source noted that Washington is trying to link several regional processes together and form a new system of interaction after the war. At the same time, the administration acknowledges that it is not yet clear whether all US allies in the Middle East will support this approach.
Washington wants to resolve several conflicts around Israel
The second direction of the strategy is related to the consequences of the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and subsequent conflicts in the region.
The Trump administration is considering the possibility of simultaneously advancing the next stage of the American plan for Gaza, achieving a security agreement between Israel and Syria, and ensuring the implementation of agreements between Israel and Lebanon.
Thus, Washington expects not to limit itself to settling the war with Iran, but to use the post-war period for a broader change in the security system in the Middle East.
The main diplomatic goal remains an agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia
The third element of the plan will be the expansion of the Abraham Accords—a system of agreements normalizing Israel's relations with Arab states.
One of the main goals of the Trump administration remains the establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Washington considers such an agreement potentially a central element of the future regional architecture.
The American administration expects that the Israeli government to be formed after the October 27 elections will be ready to cooperate with Washington in implementing the new strategy. However, some American officials argue that Trump intends to advance this plan regardless of the results of the Israeli elections—even if they lead to political deadlock.
The plan may be prepared in the coming weeks
The development of the strategy is happening simultaneously with two important political events: the parliamentary elections in Israel on October 27 and the midterm elections in the US in November.
According to an Axios source familiar with the process, the administration will need several more weeks to form a more concrete version of the strategy. The ideas discussed have not yet been approved and may change.
Washington's main idea is, after the end of the war with Iran, to combine various processes—deterrence of Tehran, settlement around Israel, and expansion of agreements with Arab countries—into a single regional strategy.
Based on materials from: Axios
