NBU assessed how strikes on warehouses may raise food prices

The restructuring of logistics after Russian strikes on warehouses and other food infrastructure may raise food prices in Ukraine by an average of 0.5–1.5% over the course of a year. At the same time, for individual retail chains that lost their main distribution centers, the increase in costs may be more significant.

This assessment was provided by the National Bank of Ukraine in response to a request from Forbes Ukraine.

The NBU notes that the consequences of the attacks may not appear immediately in price tags. Retailers may respond to additional costs by reducing the assortment of certain goods and decreasing the number of promotions. Part of the price effect, according to the regulator, may manifest with a delay over the following months.

Overall, the destruction of warehouse infrastructure and business adaptation costs may add about 0.4–0.6 percentage points to annual inflation by the end of 2026.

At the same time, the NBU expects the impact on prices to remain relatively limited. One reason is the structure of final product costs: logistics and storage account for about 8% of the average consumer price. Therefore, even a significant increase in these costs is not fully transferred to the product cost.

The logistics change may have a stronger effect on products that require special storage and transportation conditions. For dry and less sensitive goods, the impact should be weaker.

In addition, warehouse damage did not affect all Ukrainian retail and all product groups. Retail chains are also constrained by competition and relatively weak consumer demand, so they cannot always fully pass on additional costs to buyers.

In August, according to NBU data, meat, primarily pork and chicken, as well as fish and seafood, pasta and cereals, became more expensive in Ukraine. At the same time, milk became cheaper, and the cost of fermented dairy products remained almost unchanged.

Earlier, Agrarian Policy Minister Taras Vysotsky estimated possible food price increases due to logistics restructuring at a maximum of 2.5%. According to him, after the Russian attacks, businesses are moving to a more decentralized supply model — smaller batches and more direct delivery from producers to points of sale. At the same time, Ukraine has sufficient food stocks, so no food shortages are expected.