Argentina intercepts Ukrainian corn markets amid port strikes

Argentina is preparing to set a corn export record: in August and September the country may supply about 10 million tons of grain to foreign markets. Growth is supported by a record harvest and demand from buyers seeking an alternative to Ukrainian corn due to problems with exports through the Black Sea.

This was reported by Reuters.

Argentina, the world's third-largest corn exporter, is finishing the 2025/2026 season harvest. Its volume is estimated at 71.7 million tons—almost 20% more than the previous record set five years ago.

For comparison, in August and September Argentina usually exports about 3 million tons of corn. This year the supply volume over two months may be more than three times higher.

According to the head of the Argentine chamber of grain exporters and vegetable oil producers CIARA-CEC Gustavo Idigoras, Argentine corn is currently competitive in both price and available volumes.

The main source of additional demand has been North African countries, many of which traditionally purchased significant volumes of grain from Ukraine. In the first seven months of 2026, Argentine corn supplies to this region grew by 45%—to 6.5 million tons. Total corn exports from Argentina increased by 15% during this period.

Sales to Morocco grew especially quickly: the country increased imports of Argentine corn by 133% compared to last year—to 1.55 million tons. Egypt increased purchases by 48%, to 2.4 million tons, and Algeria—by 10%, also to about 2.4 million tons.

The shift in trade flows is occurring amid Russian strikes on export infrastructure in the Odessa region, where the main Ukrainian Black Sea ports are located. Due to problems with maritime logistics, Ukraine is forced to redirect some grain cargoes through the Danube and overland routes.

However, the Danube's capacity has also diminished. Drought and record heat in Europe have led to lower water levels in the river and further limited the route's throughput capacity. According to Reuters, last month Ukrainian corn supplies decreased by 52%.

Analyst and former Argentine trade secretary Javier Preciado Patiño believes that in the current situation, some of Ukraine's traditional external markets are effectively becoming available to competitors. Meanwhile, some Ukrainian grain that can be shipped by land routes will likely remain in Europe, where the corn harvest has also suffered from the heat.

Argentina also gains an additional advantage from reduced supply from Brazil—the world's second-largest corn exporter. Over the past three years, Brazilian shipments have decreased by almost 20% relative to the record 53 million tons.

One of the reasons has been the rapid development of ethanol production in Brazil. More and more corn is consumed domestically instead of being sent abroad. In the 2025/2026 season, domestic corn consumption in Brazil grew by 7.1%—to 98 million tons.

The combination of a record Argentine harvest, Ukrainian export logistics problems, a weak harvest in part of Europe, and reduced competition from Brazil allows Argentina to significantly strengthen its position in the world corn market.