Merkel bloc's rating falls to record 18% — AfD strengthens leadership

Support for the conservative CDU/CSU bloc of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has dropped to 18% — the lowest figure in the history of YouGov polls. The right-wing Alternative for Germany party maintains first place with 29%.

This is reported by WELT citing a new YouGov poll.

Compared to August, the CDU/CSU rating fell by two percentage points — from 20% to 18%. This is the bloc's worst result in YouGov surveys. The previous low was 20% and was recorded in September 2021.

AfD, on the contrary, gained one point and reached 29%. Thus, the gap between the party and Merz's bloc reached 11 percentage points.

Third place is held by the Greens with 16%, followed by the Social Democratic Party of Germany with 13% and the Left Party with 10%. The Free Democratic Party received 5%, and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance — 4%.

The poll was conducted from September 11 to 14 among 1,787 people. The statistical margin of error is about 2.5 percentage points.

The fall of the CDU/CSU below 20% is recorded not only by YouGov. According to the latest INSA survey, the bloc received 19.5%, while AfD also gained 29%. At the same time, results from other institutes are somewhat higher: Forsa and Infratest dimap give the conservatives 21%, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen — 22%, and Allensbach — 22.5%.

For comparison, in the federal elections in February 2025, the CDU and CSU together received 28.6% of second votes — 22.6% for the CDU and 6% for the CSU. Thus, the current YouGov result is more than 10 percentage points below the bloc's result in the last Bundestag elections.

The poll also shows a change in Germans' attitude towards possible interaction of other parties with the AfD. Now 51% of respondents believe that other political forces should not rule out cooperation with it in principle. A month earlier, this position was shared by 44%. 40% are in favor of a complete refusal to cooperate, compared to 46% in August.

The new data appeared a few days before important regional elections. On September 20, voting will take place simultaneously in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.

The position of the Merz government also remains weak by other indicators. The September DeutschlandTrend showed that only 15% of Germans positively assess the work of the CDU/CSU and SPD coalition, while 84% are dissatisfied with it. 13% of respondents were satisfied with the work of the chancellor himself.

Based on materials from: WELT, Infratest dimap, Federal Returning Officer of Germany