US General: Russian recruit may survive only 20–30 minutes on battlefield

In certain frontline sectors in Ukraine, the expected survival time of a new Russian serviceman on the battlefield can be only 20–30 minutes. Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine links this to the mass use of cheap high-precision drones, including those equipped with artificial intelligence technologies.

Caine stated this on September 16 during a speech at the Air, Space & Cyber Conference of the US Air and Space Forces Association.

The general cited the war in Ukraine as one of the most illustrative examples of how quickly drone and autonomous technologies are changing the modern battlefield.

According to him, Ukrainian units use FPV drones in conditions of intense electronic warfare. Some devices are already equipped with computer vision based on artificial intelligence, thanks to which the drone can continue moving toward a selected target even after losing GPS or the communication channel with the operator.

“This gives small units affordable high precision and shows how quickly software and autonomy are changing tactical-level capabilities,” — Caine noted.

The general then offered an assessment of the situation in certain sectors of the Ukrainian front. According to him, the survival time of a new Russian serviceman on the battlefield there can be only 20–30 minutes.

Caine did not provide detailed statistics on which this estimate is based and stressed that it refers specifically to certain sectors of the front. Therefore this figure should be viewed as an estimate by American military leadership, not as a metric for the entire line of contact.

“This is what happens when inexpensive precision means quickly enter service, rapidly adapt and scale on the battlefield,” — said the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs.

He added that the cost of striking an enemy continues to decrease as cheap drones and autonomous systems proliferate.

This is not the first such estimate from senior American officials. In July, CIA Director John Ratcliffe also stated that, according to US intelligence and open sources, the survival time of a new Russian recruit on the battlefield in Ukraine in certain conditions is estimated at 20–30 minutes. He also linked this to the development of Ukrainian cheap attack drones with artificial intelligence elements.

For Caine, Ukraine's experience serves as both a warning for the American military. According to him, the US Armed Forces must assume that in future wars their units will be constantly detected, tracked in real time, subjected to electronic warfare and attacked by autonomous systems.

“We must henceforth assume that autonomous systems will hunt our formations, jam them across the spectrum and track them in real time,” — the general said.

Caine believes the US needs to restructure its armed forces faster and combine expensive complex weapons with mass cheap systems. The experience of the Ukrainian front, according to his assessment, shows that software, autonomy and the ability to quickly scale relatively inexpensive weapons are becoming a key factor of modern warfare.

Based on materials from: Air, Space & Cyber Conference, Air & Space Forces Magazine, DefenseScoop