Russia lowers gas production and export forecast amid Europe's refusal to buy

Russian authorities have worsened forecasts for natural gas production and exports in the coming years amid reduced supplies to Europe and European Union plans to completely abandon Russian fuel. The new estimates will be used when updating Russia's federal budget through 2029.

According to the draft forecast of Russia's socio-economic development, gas production in 2026 should amount to 683.1 billion cubic meters. Back in May, authorities counted on 688.4 billion cubic meters. Thus, the estimate has been reduced by 5.3 billion cubic meters.

At the same time, production is still expected to be higher than the 2025 result, when Russia produced 662.7 billion cubic meters of gas. However, forecasts for subsequent years have also been revised downward. For 2027, 696.1 billion cubic meters are expected instead of the previous 711.3 billion; for 2028, 710.5 billion instead of 731.9 billion; and for 2029, 740.1 billion instead of 750.4 billion cubic meters.

Expectations for liquefied natural gas exports have been lowered particularly noticeably. In 2026, Russia expects to send abroad 35 million tons of LNG versus 40.3 million tons in the previous forecast. This is 5.3 million tons less than the previous estimate. For comparison, in 2025, exports amounted to 30.3 million tons.

Subsequently, LNG supplies should grow, but significantly more slowly than previously expected. The forecast for 2027 has been reduced from 46.9 million to 39.5 million tons, and for 2028 from 58.4 million to 50.1 million tons. In 2029, 64.5 million tons are expected instead of 66.2 million tons.

The situation with pipeline gas is different. For 2026, the forecast for its total exports has even been slightly raised—from 115.5 billion to 117.5 billion cubic meters. However, estimates for 2027–2029 have been worsened: in 2027, Russia expects to export 120.5 billion cubic meters instead of the previously forecast 125.5 billion, and in 2029—119.5 billion instead of 127.5 billion.

The revision comes amid Russia's actual loss of a significant part of the European gas market. In 2018–2019, Russian pipeline supplies to Europe reached approximately 180 billion cubic meters per year. In 2025, they fell to around 18 billion cubic meters—the lowest level since the mid-1970s.

An additional factor was the cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukrainian territory since the beginning of 2025. Meanwhile, EU countries continue to replace Russian fuel with supplies from other states and are expanding infrastructure for receiving LNG.

In January 2026, EU countries finalized a phased ban on imports of Russian gas. For long-term contracts, supplies of Russian LNG should stop from early 2027, and pipeline gas—from autumn 2027. Transition periods are provided for existing contracts.

Thus, Russia's gas sector simultaneously faces the loss of the traditional European market and slower-than-expected growth in alternative export destinations. At the same time, Moscow continues to declare its readiness to resume supplies to Europe if European countries change their policy.

Based on materials from: Gas Processing & LNG, Council of the EU