CDU loses ground in Germany's largest state, AfD gains

Support for the Christian Democratic Union in North Rhine-Westphalia has declined, while the ratings of the Alternative for Germany and the Left Party have risen. This is according to a new Forsa poll commissioned by Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger.

If elections to the state parliament of North Rhine-Westphalia were held now, 29% of respondents would be ready to vote for the CDU. Compared to the previous survey, the party lost three percentage points and for the first time since 2022 fell below the 30% mark in Forsa polls.

The AfD received 22%, two percentage points more than before. The Greens would get 18%, up one point, while the SPD remained at 14%. The Left Party jumped two points to 8%, and the FDP stayed at 3%.

Thus, in the state poll the gap between the CDU and AfD is seven percentage points. According to Forsa's calculations, the current coalition of the CDU and the Greens would still have a chance to win a majority of seats in the Landtag under this distribution of votes.

Separately, Forsa asked residents of the region whom they would vote for in Bundestag elections. The results here differ markedly: the AfD received 24%, up two points compared to April, while the CDU got 22%, down four points.

This is the first time in this series of Forsa polls that the AfD's rating in North Rhine-Westphalia has exceeded the CDU's when asked about federal elections. The CDU's 22% is also the lowest figure Forsa has ever recorded for the party in this state in such a question.

In a hypothetical Bundestag vote, the Greens would get 18%, the SPD 14%, the Left Party 12%, and the FDP 3%. Compared to the April survey, the Left Party's rating rose by three points, the SPD's by one, and the Greens' remained unchanged.

Forsa also measured residents' attitudes toward the Federal Chancellor and CDU leader Friedrich Merz. 11% of respondents in North Rhine-Westphalia said they are satisfied with his work, while 87% expressed dissatisfaction. Among CDU supporters, 36% are satisfied with Merz's work, and 64% are not.

Ratings of North Rhine-Westphalia's Minister-President Hendrik Wüst differ: 46% of respondents said they are satisfied with his work, and 37% said they are not.

The survey was conducted from September 7 to 18 among 1,030 eligible voters in North Rhine-Westphalia. Forsa states a statistical margin of error of up to 2.5 percentage points. Such polls reflect the opinion of respondents at the time of the survey and are not a forecast of election results.

Based on materials from: Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger, Die Zeit