EU does not expect elections in France and Germany to stop support for Ukraine

European Union officials do not believe that the strengthening of political forces opposed to the current scale of aid to Ukraine in France and Germany will lead to a sharp change in the EU's course towards Kyiv.

This is reported by Reuters, citing European officials.

Concerns about the sustainability of support have intensified amid the presidential campaign in France and the success of the Alternative for Germany party in regional elections in Germany. Both countries have significant weight in European decision-making, and political forces critical of military and financial aid to Kyiv have strengthened their positions.

However, Reuters sources in EU institutions believe that European support for Ukraine has become significantly less dependent on individual national governments than in the early years of the full-scale war. A significant portion of funding and defense programs has already been formalized as long-term European Union mechanisms.

One of them is a €90 billion loan program to support Ukraine. On September 18, the European Commission announced the disbursement of a further €3.3 billion for defense procurement, including missiles and drones. According to the European Commission, since 2022 the EU and its member states have provided Ukraine with aid totaling €224.5 billion.

In Germany, additional pressure on the current political course is created by the growing support for the AfD. The party opposes further military aid to Ukraine and calls for restoring relations with Russia. In September, it achieved strong results in several state elections.

Despite this, the federal government of Chancellor Friedrich Merz has not changed its position so far. In September, Merz reiterated that Germany will continue to support Ukraine. Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul also said that Berlin intends to maintain the current course.

In France, the issue of aid to Ukraine is becoming one of the topics of the 2027 presidential campaign. Representatives of the right-wing National Rally are in favor of reducing spending on support for Kyiv. President Emmanuel Macron, on the contrary, stated in September that Russian actions aimed at intimidating European countries will not force Paris to abandon aid to Ukraine.

At the same time, the assessment of European officials does not mean that domestic political changes in France or Germany will have no impact on the volume and form of aid. The main point is that the financial and defense mechanisms already established by the EU reduce the likelihood of a rapid cessation of support due to the results of individual elections.