Calm in the currency market replaced by increased demand for dollars
On Tuesday, September 29, the National Bank set the following official rates: - US dollar – 44.8153 UAH (-0.0261 UAH to the official rate on Monday, September 28); - euro – 50.9743 UAH (-0.1615 UAH to the official rate on Monday, September 28).
Rates were set at 16:00 on September 28 and reflect the following trends:
1. The decline in cashless dollar quotes on the interbank currency market last Friday attracted a large number of buyers, and immediately after the start of Monday's trading, a large number of purchase orders were submitted. A supply-demand imbalance arose and, despite the active participation of the National Bank in trading, dollar quotes moved up. However, the fact that trading started from a low level played a role. At 12:00, the average transaction price was 44.7941 UAH – 14 kopecks lower than last Friday. In the afternoon, the growth of quotes continued; shortly before the close of trading, they reached 44.951 UAH on the "bid" position. The average price by the end of the trading session rose slightly, but turned out to be lower than last Friday. Therefore, the NBU lowered the official dollar rate for tomorrow by 2.6 kopecks, although in fact the interbank rate rose significantly.
2. The euro on the international FOREX market traded in a narrow range of 1.13532 – 1.13913 dollars on Monday. The market is trying to find a balance after sharp movements last week and the week before. At the time of fixing, the euro was sold at 1.13743 dollars – 29.3 points lower than last Friday (1.14036 dollars). Therefore, in addition to lowering the official dollar rate, the NBU lowered the official euro rate for Tuesday by as much as 16.1 kopecks.
On the cash market today, the situation was fundamentally different from what happened last Friday. Today, cash market prices went up immediately as the interbank market began to grow. By the evening, they differed noticeably from those at the end of last week. Thus, in wholesale exchange offices in the capital, dollars could be bought in the evening at 44.90 UAH (5 kopecks more expensive), and in Kharkiv, the dollar rose immediately by 17 kopecks, to 45.06 UAH. In Dnipro and Lviv, the dollar added 10 kopecks in price, and in Odessa – 13 kopecks.
As we wrote last week, such sharp fluctuations are a sign of the current "thin" cash market. The volume of transactions on it has significantly decreased compared to previous years, and exchange rate formation has become highly dependent on external factors, for example, on the trend in the interbank currency market.
Nevertheless, so far the National Bank manages to keep the dollar rate within an acceptable range, however, according to analysts of the "Course of Ukraine" portal, the period of relative stability is coming to an end. And the longer the National Bank keeps the rate, the more it may "shoot up" later.
