Dollar in Ukraine moved up against global strengthening of US currency

For Friday, October 2, the National Bank set the following official exchange rates: - US dollar – 44.8333 UAH (+0.1514 UAH to the official rate for Thursday, October 1); - euro – 50.6975 UAH (-0.0191 UAH to the official rate for Thursday, October 1).

Rates are set as of 16:00 on October 1 and reflect the following trends:

1. On the first day of the new month, the dollar rose sharply on the international FOREX market amid a surge in US Treasury yields. This growth influenced sentiment on the interbank currency market: many importers rushed to purchase the necessary currency amounts for contract payments in advance, which in turn pushed up cashless dollar quotes. Despite active interventions by the National Bank, the dollar reached 44.99 UAH on the "bid" position by the end of trading; the rise during the trading session was about 0.83%. Therefore, the NBU raised the official dollar rate by 15.1 kopecks for tomorrow.

2. The euro fell sharply against the US dollar on the international FOREX market on Thursday and by the time of writing had dropped to 1.1227 dollars. At the time of fixing, the euro was sold at 1.1308 dollars – 42.6 points lower than on Wednesday (1.13506 dollars). Therefore, despite the increase in the official dollar rate, the NBU lowered the official euro rate for Friday by almost 2 kopecks.

The beginning of the new month also affected the cash market, where dollar selling prices went up. In Kyiv, by evening the dollar rose by 3 kopecks, to 44.88 UAH. In other cities, the growth was more noticeable: in Dnipro it gained 10 kopecks in price, and in Kharkiv and Odesa – 12 kopecks. At the same time, in Dnipro and Odesa by evening, wholesale exchange offices sold the dollar at exactly 45.00 UAH, and in Kharkiv – even at 45.05 UAH.

Analysts are divided on how to interpret today's rise. The majority still believe that what happened on the interbank market is a reaction to a sharp jump in the dollar globally. At the same time, they acknowledge that the National Bank clearly miscalculated its strength while trying to smooth the situation.