Russia prepares large-scale campaign against Ukraine's energy system - NYT
Russia has prepared a detailed plan for a massive winter campaign against Ukrainian energy and utility infrastructure. It envisages successive strikes on generation facilities, substations, water supply systems, and infrastructure that ensures electricity imports from Europe.
The New York Times writes about this, which obtained a copy of the document presented by Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal to European partners in Paris. According to the publication, the Ukrainian side calls it an intercepted Russian plan for the winter campaign. The NYT could not independently verify the authenticity of the document.
The document envisages the use of up to a thousand missiles, drones, and aerial bombs against various energy and utility facilities. Among potential targets are electric substations, thermal and hydroelectric power plants, boiler houses, and other infrastructure necessary for the operation of large cities.
The plan separately describes a scenario of strikes on electrical nodes connecting the three operating Ukrainian nuclear power plants to the power system. If damaged, these plants may be forced to stop supplying electricity to the grid. At the same time, the reactors themselves are not named as direct targets.
Another direction of the Russian campaign, according to the document, may be water supply and sanitation facilities. This refers to pumping stations and treatment plants, against which the use of ballistic missiles and guided aerial bombs is envisaged. Russia has not previously carried out massive strikes of this scale on water infrastructure.
The greatest risk in the document is assigned to Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa. The Russian calculation envisages an attempt to sharply reduce electricity and heat supplies in large cities, as well as disrupt the operation of sewage systems.
According to the NYT, the campaign is divided into several stages. Initially, strikes should be aimed at substations near the western border, through which Ukraine imports electricity from Europe. The next targets are hydroelectric power plants, and the final stage involves an attempt to remove operating nuclear power plants from the power system.
Shmyhal reported about the availability of such materials in Kyiv back in late September. According to him, Ukrainian intelligence services obtained two documents from the Russian side, where for individual energy facilities the types and quantities of means of destruction were calculated. The plan covers not only electricity generation, but also heat, water, sanitation, and interstate energy connections.
Ukraine is already strengthening the physical protection of critical facilities, building up equipment reserves, and expanding the capabilities for rapid network restoration. According to Shmyhal, over 200 reinforced concrete protective structures have been erected over priority facilities, but it is impossible to completely cover the entire energy system with such protection - air defense remains key.
The threat is already beginning to materialize in practice. As of October 2, after new attacks by strike drones, consumers in several regions remained without power, with the most difficult situation in Sumy and Chernihiv regions. The Ministry of Energy reported repairs to damaged facilities and strengthening of energy infrastructure protection ahead of winter.
Based on materials from: The New York Times, Ukrainska Pravda
