Due to Russian strikes on businesses, budget lost over UAH 30 billion in two months

The state of Ukraine's state budget filling is deteriorating: in August and September alone, the general fund received UAH 32 billion less than planned. Roksolana Pidlasa, head of the Verkhovna Rada Budget Committee, called constant Russian strikes on Ukrainian enterprises the main reason for this drop.

Pidlasa reported this following the budget implementation results for nine months of 2026.

According to her, in January-September, about UAH 1.9 trillion entered the general fund of the state budget excluding international grants. The budget lagged behind the plan for this period by UAH 49.5 billion, with almost two-thirds of that amount coming in the last two months.

The largest revenue sources remained VAT on imported goods - UAH 491 billion, corporate income tax - UAH 270 billion, personal income tax and military fee - UAH 266.3 billion, and domestic VAT - UAH 255.2 billion. Another UAH 146.1 billion came from National Bank transfers.

At the same time, a significant deficit emerged for several budget-forming payments. Import VAT received UAH 35.7 billion less than planned, domestic VAT - UAH 32.9 billion less, domestic excise tax - UAH 19.1 billion less, dividends and part of net profit of state-owned enterprises - UAH 10.8 billion less.

Overall, major taxes and fees yielded approximately UAH 99 billion less than planned. Part of this shortfall was offset by better corporate income tax revenues - UAH 29 billion above plan - and personal income tax with military fee, where overperformance was UAH 6.6 billion.

Against the backdrop of deteriorating revenues, Ukraine remains significantly dependent on external financing. According to Pidlasa, over nine months about $22 billion of international assistance was used for general fund expenditures. Another UAH 350.6 billion came from government bond placements.

At the end of September, the Ministry of Finance also reported that about $36 billion in external support had entered the state budget since the beginning of 2026. Of that, $20.2 billion was provided by the European Union through Ukraine Support Loan and Ukraine Facility, $10.5 billion was raised through the ERA mechanism, and another $2.2 billion provided by the IMF. Future payments depend, among other things, on Ukraine implementing agreed reforms. This was reported by the Ministry of Finance.

Liquidity problems have already forced the government to move to stricter prioritization of expenditures. On 28 September, the Cabinet of Ministers adopted a special mechanism for implementing state and local budgets under limited financial resources. The Ministry of Finance explained the decision by the significant lag of external aid receipts behind the plan for the first eight months of the year.

The new rules provide for daily and ten-day forecasting of balances on the single treasury account and, if necessary, temporary restrictions on opening allocations. Defense, social payments and other priority needs have top priority.

Meanwhile, the budget burden remains extremely high. According to Pidlasa, since the beginning of the year about UAH 2 trillion - 61.3% of all general fund expenditures - has been allocated to defense. UAH 427.9 billion was used for public debt repayment, UAH 342.6 billion for social protection and veteran support, and another UAH 275.2 billion for debt service.

A separate risk remains the delay in receiving the next EU budget financing tranche. Pidlasa stated that the situation will remain critical until the second tranche of macro-financial assistance arrives. The European Commission clarified on 29 September that the next payment within macro-financial assistance is expected to be around €3.7 billion, but its transfer depends on Ukraine implementing the agreed conditions. Brussels is currently not giving a firm date for the payment.

At the same time, in September the general fund of the state budget received UAH 192.7 billion in taxes, fees and other mandatory payments. Additionally Ukraine received UAH 34.5 billion in international grants, according to operational data from the Ministry of Finance.

Thus, the deterioration of domestic tax revenues due to the war overlaps with uneven receipt of external aid. Under such conditions, timely financing of current expenditures increasingly depends on both the resilience of Ukrainian business and the schedule of international budget support.

Based on materials from: Roksolana Pidlasa, Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, Ministry of Finance of Ukraine