Zelensky expects new escalation from Russia ahead of US elections

President Volodymyr Zelensky believes that Russia will intensify military escalation as the midterm elections in the United States, scheduled for November 3, approach. In his opinion, the Kremlin will try to demonstrate strength to Washington and increase pressure on the negotiation process.

Zelensky stated this in an interview with El País. It concerns the Ukrainian president's assessment of Moscow's future actions, not a confirmed plan by the Russian side.

According to Zelensky, Vladimir Putin's current tactic is to maximize the level of escalation. The president expects this pressure to intensify as the American elections approach.

He linked this assessment to a sharp increase in the intensity of attacks on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. Zelensky believes that through such strikes, Moscow seeks not only to inflict military damage, but also to create chaos, disrupt the operation of logistics and civilian infrastructure, and increase psychological pressure on the population.

Separately, Zelensky stated that in his opinion, the Kremlin addresses a significant part of its signals specifically to the United States. He also expressed the assessment that European sanctions and political pressure alone do not force Putin to abandon escalation.

The president recalled that he had warned American negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner about the risk of a new wave of massive attacks. In early September, they first visited Moscow, where they met with Putin, and then Kyiv for negotiations with Zelensky. The fact of these visits was confirmed by both the White House and the Office of the President of Ukraine.

According to Zelensky, during contacts with representatives of Donald Trump's administration, he warned that Moscow could move to larger-scale attacks that would directly affect the civilian population.

In early September, negotiations mediated by the United States were still focused on the possibility of reducing the level of mutual strikes. As Kurs wrote, the American side was then discussing options for winter de-escalation, particularly regarding energy infrastructure and other sensitive areas.

On September 5, Zelensky also publicly stated Ukraine's readiness to temporarily refrain from strikes on Moscow if Russia mirrored a halt in strikes on Kyiv. This proposal was made during contacts with Witkoff and Kushner.

However, in the following weeks, the intensity of Russian attacks increased again. It is against this backdrop that Zelensky now predicts a further increase in Moscow's pressure in the period before the American midterm elections.