IMF forecasts the slowest growth of Ukraine's economy in four years

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts Ukraine's economy to grow by only 1% in 2026. This is the lowest figure since 2022, when Ukrainian GDP contracted as a result of the full-scale Russian invasion.

This is evidenced by the IMF's October World Economic Outlook report, published on October 13 during the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank in Bangkok.

According to the fund's estimates, after growing by 1.8% in 2025, Ukraine's economy will slow to 1% in 2026. Next year, the IMF expects GDP growth to accelerate to 3.5%.

Compared with the April forecast, expectations for the Ukrainian economy have significantly worsened. In the spring, the fund forecast GDP growth of 2% in 2026. In July, the IMF lowered its estimate to a range of 1-1.6%, and now has set the forecast at its lower bound.

In the July review of the Ukrainian economy, the fund attributed the worsening prospects primarily to the intensification of Russian attacks on critical infrastructure and the negative consequences of the war in the Middle East.

An additional challenge remains the rise in energy prices. In the October report, the IMF forecasts the average world oil price in 2026 at $95.74 per barrel, compared with $67.74 last year. The high cost of energy resources increases expenses for countries dependent on their imports.

At the same time, the IMF expects a slowdown in average annual inflation in Ukraine. After 12.7% in 2025, consumer price growth, according to the fund's forecast, will be 8.9% in 2026 and 8.7% in 2027.

The fund also forecasts a reduction in unemployment from 11.6% in 2025 to 10.2% in 2026. However, next year this indicator may increase again to 11.3%, despite the expected acceleration of economic growth.

In addition, the IMF anticipates a gradual reduction in Ukraine's current account deficit. If in 2025 it was 16% of GDP, then in 2026 it may shrink to 11%, and in 2027 - to 4.7% of GDP.

The fund emphasizes that economic prospects remain vulnerable to further military and energy shocks. In its previous review of Ukraine, the IMF also underscored the need for timely international financing to preserve macroeconomic stability and support recovery.

At the global level, the IMF forecasts the economy to grow by 3.1% in 2026 and by 3.4% in 2027. Compared with July, the forecast for the current year has been raised by 0.1 percentage point, while the estimate for next year is unchanged.

Despite the relative resilience of the world economy, the fund warns about the risks of protracted conflicts, further increases in energy prices, and heightened inflationary pressure. The most vulnerable remain countries that import significant volumes of energy resources and have limited financial capacity to mitigate the consequences of price shocks.

Sources: IMF - World Economic Outlook, October 2026, IMF - July review of Ukraine's economy, IMF - April forecast for Ukraine