Wholesale diesel prices in Ukraine exceed retail: gas stations face new price pressure
An unusual situation has emerged on the Ukrainian diesel fuel market: wholesale prices exceeded the average cost of diesel at gas stations. This gap creates risks of further fuel price increases, as well as local disruptions in its availability at gas stations.
This was reported by industry publication Enkorr citing monitoring data from the A-95 Consulting Group.
As of October 12, the average wholesale price of diesel fuel was 102.58 UAH per liter, while in the retail network it was sold at an average of 98.68 UAH/l.
Thus, the difference between retail and wholesale prices dropped to minus 3.90 UAH per liter. In just a week, this indicator worsened by 5.35 UAH/l.
This means that operators purchasing new batches of diesel on the domestic market find it increasingly difficult to maintain previous retail prices. However, the average price gap does not mean that every gas station is already selling fuel at a loss: actual profitability depends on the cost of previously accumulated inventories, supply conditions and expenses of a particular operator.
Wholesale diesel price rose much faster than at gas stations
According to Enkorr, on October 9 the average cost of diesel in the wholesale segment reached a record 103.21 UAH/l. Over the previous working week, the price jumped by 6.25 UAH.
At the beginning of the new week, wholesale quotations decreased slightly, but remained at a high level.
Meanwhile, retail prices are reacting much more slowly. Over the previous week, diesel at Ukrainian gas stations rose by an average of only 28 kopecks per liter.
So far, the situation on the gasoline market is different. The average wholesale price of A-95 from October 5 to 12 increased by 78 kopecks - to 82.23 UAH/l.
The retail price of gasoline was about 89.36 UAH/l, so the difference between the two segments remained positive - approximately 7.13 UAH per liter. However, this indicator also narrowed over the week.
Some buyers may switch from wholesale market to gas stations
Experts point to another risk associated with the unusual price ratio.
When diesel fuel at gas stations costs less than from wholesale suppliers, enterprises with large consumption volumes may find it more profitable to purchase directly at gas stations.
This primarily concerns transport companies, agricultural enterprises and other consumers requiring significant volumes of diesel fuel.
According to Enkorr estimates, a mass shift of wholesale buyers to the retail market could lead to rapid depletion of stocks at certain gas stations.
The Ukrainian market already experienced a similar situation in August, when additional demand for relatively cheap fuel created difficulties for certain networks, in particular UKRNAFTA and UPG.
Currently, this is about the risk of such disruptions repeating, not about a confirmed nationwide diesel shortage.
Diesel imports fell amid logistical problems
An additional factor of tension on the Ukrainian fuel market remains the supply situation.
According to the A-95 Consulting Group, in September 2026 Ukraine imported 537 thousand tons of diesel fuel. That is 21% less than in September last year, and 9% less than the August figure.
Supplies from the southern direction declined the most. Their volume decreased by 38% year-on-year - to 220 thousand tons.
The company attributed this dynamic to high global prices, rising costs of supplies from Southern Europe, logistical limitations and weaker demand for diesel.
However, over nine months of 2026, total diesel imports amounted to 4.7 million tons, 3% more than in the corresponding period last year.
Therefore, the September reduction in imports alone does not indicate complete depletion of fuel stocks in Ukraine. However, amid the new price surge and uneven distribution of supplies, risks for individual operators may increase.
Will diesel become more expensive in the near future
Enkorr analysts expect high wholesale prices to continue pressuring the retail market. The situation may remain especially difficult for small networks that purchase diesel mainly at current prices.
The speed of price increases at gas stations will depend on the volume of available stocks, importers' ability to increase supplies and further dynamics of the European oil products market.
Experts name not only the reduction of gas station trade margins as the most serious risk, but also the possibility of local stock depletion due to redirection of large buyers to retail purchases.
Earlier, "Kurs Ukrainy" reported that on October 12 average prices for main types of fuel continued to rise, but big business was in no hurry to revise retail price lists. New wholesale market data suggests that maintaining such pricing policy may become increasingly difficult.
Based on materials from: Enkorr, A-95 Consulting Group