IEA questions Russia's plans to restore diesel exports after deal with Trump
Russia is unlikely to significantly increase diesel fuel exports in the near future, despite the agreement with US President Donald Trump and the easing of trade restrictions. The main obstacle remains the lack of operating refining capacity, notably due to damage to Russian refineries by Ukrainian drones.
This is according to the October report of the International Energy Agency (IEA), published on October 14.
The agency estimates that the recent easing of Russian restrictions on diesel exports is unlikely to significantly change the global fuel market balance.
The IEA explains that the current problems of Russian exporters are primarily related not to administrative bans, but to the physical lack of capacity to produce petroleum products.
"The recently announced easing of Russian restrictions on diesel exports is unlikely to significantly change the global gasoil market balance, since current export restrictions are driven by a lack of operating refining capacity in Russia", - note IEA analysts.
This conclusion casts doubt on the possibility of rapid implementation of Moscow's plans to increase diesel exports, announced after the agreement with Washington.
Ukrainian strikes reduced Russian refinery capabilities
Throughout 2026, Ukrainian drones intensified attacks on Russian oil refining enterprises. Damage to technological equipment led to a reduction in oil refining and production of finished fuels.
Already in the September analysis, the IEA noted that in June, refining volumes in Russia fell to 3.8 million barrels per day - the lowest level in over 20 years.
This is approximately 30% less than the same period of 2025. Meanwhile, according to the agency's estimates, diesel fuel production decreased by almost 30% year-on-year.
Before the start of large-scale attacks, Russia had 32 large refineries with a total installed capacity of about 6.5 million barrels per day. However, the existence of production capacity on paper does not mean the possibility of its full operation after damage.
The IEA warned that the frequency and intensity of Ukrainian strikes complicate the restoration of refining. With each new attack, the volume of repair work increases, and the reliability of enterprises that continue to operate remains in question.
In September, the agency lowered its forecast for oil refining in Russia to an average level of about 4 million barrels per day for the rest of 2026 and for 2027.
Thus, even the lifting of export bans does not guarantee the appearance of additional diesel volumes if Russian refineries cannot restore production.
Russia promises to return exports to pre-crisis levels
The IEA's conclusions contradict the optimistic statements of Russian authorities made after the conclusion of the so-called diesel agreement with the US.
On October 12, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that by the end of 2026, Russia expects to increase diesel fuel exports to 3-3.5 million tons per month.
According to Novak, this would allow a return to supply volumes that existed before the start of the current fuel crisis.
The Russian official also claimed that the country's enterprises have sufficient capacity to simultaneously provide for the domestic market and increase exports.
In addition, according to him, Russian oil companies are already negotiating with potential buyers, including American ones, and the energy ministries of the two countries are discussing the organization of future supplies.
However, the October IEA assessment shows that the main limitation remains production, not the lack of buyers or an export ban.
Trump and Putin's agreement involves millions of tons of diesel
On October 9, US President Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin on the resumption of Russian diesel fuel supplies to the American and global markets.
According to Trump, Russia was to provide over 300 thousand tons of diesel in the near future, another 500 thousand tons in November, and an additional 1 million tons in the next period.
The American president also spoke of the possibility of supplying another 3 million tons, but did not specify specific dates for the shipment of this volume.
To implement the agreement, the US Treasury Department issued General License No. 135, which temporarily allows certain operations with Russian diesel, including its sale, transportation, and import.
The license is valid until April 7, 2027. This is a partial easing of American sanctions, not their complete lifting.
After the agreement with the US, Moscow also began to ease its own restrictions on diesel exports, which it had previously introduced due to problems of fuel supply to the domestic market.
Trump hoped that additional volumes of Russian oil products would help lower high diesel prices in the US and other countries.
However, according to IEA conclusions, even under more favorable international trade conditions, Russia's ability to increase supplies remains limited by the state of its refining infrastructure.
Global diesel exports continue to decline
The problems of Russian oil refining exacerbate the fuel shortage caused by supply disruptions from the Middle East.
According to IEA data, in September 2026, global seaborne exports of diesel and gasoil amounted to about 4.7 million barrels per day. This is almost 700 thousand barrels less than a year earlier.
Total net exports of diesel and gasoil from Russia and Middle Eastern countries decreased by more than 60% year-on-year - to 820 thousand barrels per day.
Compared to September last year, supplies from these two regions decreased by approximately 1.3 million barrels per day.
The shortage was partially offset by the US and China, which increased oil product exports by a combined 610 thousand barrels per day year-on-year. However, this was not enough to fully replace the lost volumes.
Meanwhile, in the Middle East, the recovery of crude oil exports is occurring much faster than supplies of finished fuels.
In September, countries in the region exported 1.9 million barrels of oil products per day, compared to 4.7 million before the start of the war with Iran.
It is the combination of reduced diesel production in Russia and prolonged disruptions in the Middle East that maintains the deficit in the global market.
Diesel deficit may persist throughout 2027
The IEA warns that the diesel fuel supply situation will remain tight even after the expected increase in global refining volumes at the end of 2026.
According to the agency's forecast, in the first quarter of 2027, the current market balance for diesel and gasoil may return to surplus. However, the additional supply will not be sufficient for rapid replenishment of stocks, which have significantly decreased during 2026.
The IEA considers a full recovery of stocks beyond usual seasonal fluctuations unlikely before the second half of 2027.
Against the backdrop of limited supply, wholesale diesel prices, although declined from September records, remain almost twice as high as the cost of crude oil and pre-crisis levels.
Thus, the Washington-Moscow agreement may ease international trade in Russian diesel, but by itself cannot restore damaged refineries or quickly increase production volumes.
The actual impact of the Trump-Putin deal on global prices will depend first and foremost on the amount of fuel that Russia can actually produce and ship, rather than on announced export plans.
Sources: International Energy Agency - October report, IEA - analysis of the state of Russian refineries, Kurs Ukrainy