Five-ton Chinese rocket stage to enter atmosphere on October 18: what is known about its trajectory over Europe

The Polish Space Agency POLSA has warned about the re-entry into the atmosphere of the five-ton stage of the Chinese ZQ-2E rocket on October 18. According to calculations from October 17, the re-entry window is almost 11 hours, and one of the possible trajectory segments passes over Europe, including Poland. The nominal calculated re-entry point is over the Atlantic Ocean, but the exact location is still unknown. Some parts of the rocket may not burn up completely and could reach the Earth's surface.

The stage was placed into orbit on October 14 during the launch of the Chinese Zhuque-2E rocket. Its movement is now being tracked by space safety specialists, who are refining the forecast for the object's return into the atmosphere.

The main problem is that even a small error in determining the entry time can significantly change the geography of possible falling debris.

When will the Chinese rocket enter the atmosphere?

According to an official POLSA announcement from October 17, the return of the spent stage is expected on Sunday, October 18, between 05:03 and 15:43 Polish time.

For residents of Ukraine, this corresponds to the interval from 06:03 to 16:43 Kyiv time.

The central point of the forecast interval is at 10:23 Polish time, or 11:23 Kyiv time.

However, the estimated error is five hours and twenty minutes in each direction.

In other words, specialists cannot yet determine the moment of the stage's return more precisely than within an almost eleven-hour window.

This is due to the peculiarities of the movement of objects in low Earth orbits.

Gradually descending, the spent stage encounters resistance from the upper layers of the atmosphere. Their density changes under the influence of solar activity and other factors.

Therefore, even with accurate orbital observations, it is very difficult to determine the moment of final deorbiting in advance.

As the event approaches, specialists will be able to refine the forecast based on new measurements.

The object is also tracked by the American organization The Aerospace Corporation. In the international space object tracking system, the stage is registered under NORAD number 101070 and designation 2026-234L.

American specialists also predict a return on October 18, but their time estimate differs from the calculations of the Polish agency.

Where could the trajectory of the five-ton stage pass?

At the time of publication, POLSA indicates the Atlantic Ocean as the area of the nominal calculated re-entry point of the rocket into the atmosphere.

But there is an important detail: this is not an established location for falling debris.

The nominal point corresponds to the middle of the forecast time interval. Since the error is still large, the actual return of the object could occur on a different part of the orbit.

According to the Polish agency, the inclination of the ZQ-2E orbit is about 98 degrees. Such parameters allow the stage to pass over a significant portion of the Earth's surface, including European countries.

According to the latest available orbital observations, one of the possible segments of its trajectory passes over Poland.

However, a flyby over the country's territory does not mean that the re-entry will occur there.

The object may cross the sky over Poland while continuing along its orbit, and then enter the dense layers of the atmosphere much further away.

Therefore, reports of a possible flyby over Europe cannot be interpreted as confirmation of a threat of falling debris on specific cities.

POLSA has not declared a specific impact zone for the stage and has not named any localities directly threatened by this event.

Could five-ton debris reach the Earth's surface?

The mass of the spent stage is estimated at approximately 5,000 kilograms.

Upon returning from orbit, space objects move at speeds of several kilometers per second. In the dense layers of the atmosphere, they experience extremely intense heating and mechanical stress.

Most of the structure usually breaks up and burns up before reaching the Earth's surface.

However, some particularly robust elements can survive atmospheric re-entry.

These may be engine parts, elements made of heat-resistant metal alloys, or individual parts of the propulsion system.

The Polish Space Agency explicitly warns that in the case of ZQ-2E, the survival of individual fragments cannot be ruled out.

Specialists link this conclusion to two circumstances: the large mass of the stage and the lack of complete information about its design.

Without precise data on the materials and configuration of the rocket, it is impossible to determine in advance which elements will be completely destroyed and which could potentially reach the surface.

It is important to understand that five tons is the mass of the tracked stage before break-up. This does not mean that a single five-ton object will fall to Earth or that the total weight of surviving parts will be five tons.

The number and mass of possible fragments are currently unknown.

What is known about the Chinese ZQ-2E rocket

ZQ-2E, also known as Zhuque-2E or "Zhuque-2E", is a launch vehicle of the Chinese private space company LandSpace.

It uses liquid methane and liquid oxygen as propellants.

On October 14, 2026, the rocket lifted off from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in northwestern China.

According to an official LandSpace announcement, the launch was successful: the rocket delivered ten satellites to their intended orbits.

The payload included eight satellites of the Xingshidai series and two experimental satellites intended for testing laser data transmission technologies.

After mission completion, the spent stage remained in low Earth orbit.

That is what is now approaching the Earth's atmosphere.

POLSA's warning concerns this stage, not the entire rocket or the ten satellites placed into orbit.

How dangerous are re-entries of space debris?

Such events occur much more often than one might think.

According to a report by the European Space Agency ESA published in September 2026, more than three intact satellites or rocket stages return to Earth's atmosphere on average every day.

Most of these objects do not pose a significant threat to the population because they break up upon entering dense atmospheric layers or re-enter over sparsely populated areas and oceans.

However, the risk of individual fragments falling cannot be completely dismissed.

ESA notes that as the number of space launches increases, the cumulative risk associated with uncontrolled re-entries of spent vehicles also grows.

At the same time, the probability of causing harm to people remains low compared to many everyday risks.

To reduce the danger, space agencies and manufacturers are developing technologies for controlled deorbiting and designs that maximize destruction in the atmosphere.

In the case of ZQ-2E, no official quantitative risk assessment for residents of specific European countries has yet been published.

Consequently, there are no grounds to claim that debris must fall on Poland or any other specific territory.

What to do if debris is found on the ground

POLSA reports that it is tracking the stage's movement and passing information to relevant government services.

Specialists recommend relying on official announcements from the agency, since forecasts may change as new data becomes available.

If, after the anticipated return of the rocket, someone discovers an unusual metallic object that may be a fragment of space hardware, do not touch, disassemble, or move it yourself.

NASA recommends contacting local authorities in such cases.

Even if the found elements do not contain hazardous substances, they may have sharp edges and other design features that pose a risk if handled carelessly.

At the same time, Polish authorities have not announced any evacuation of the population or special restrictions in connection with the expected return of ZQ-2E.

When will the exact re-entry location be known?

The most accurate forecasts usually appear in the final hours before an object enters the dense layers of the atmosphere.

Specialists use new orbital measurements to gradually narrow the time window of uncertainty.

However, even after the stage's return, it is not always possible to establish exactly where any surviving fragments ended up.

If debris falls into the ocean or an inaccessible area, it may never be found.

As of the evening of October 17, the official situation remains as follows: the return of the five-ton ZQ-2E stage is expected on October 18, the nominal calculated entry point is over the Atlantic, and the possible trajectory includes segments over Europe.

Due to the significant margin of error, the precise re-entry location has not yet been determined.

POLSA continues to monitor the object, and new calculations may change both the expected return time and the position of the nominal point.

Thus, we are dealing with a real space event monitored by international observation services, but not with a confirmed threat of the rocket falling on European cities.

The main question in the coming hours is how much the calculations will be refined and where the flight of the spent Chinese stage will actually end.

Sources: Polish Space Agency POLSA — official warning of October 17, 2026, The Aerospace Corporation — re-entry forecast for ZQ-2E, LandSpace — official launch announcement of October 14, European Space Agency — Space Environment Report 2026, NASA — safety recommendations for space debris discovery.