Poland increased its trade surplus with Ukraine to a record level
Poland increased its positive balance of trade in goods with Ukraine to a record 9.7 billion euros. In the twelve months ending in May 2026, Polish exports to Ukraine were more than three times higher than imports of Ukrainian goods. At the same time, Poland strengthened its position as the largest supplier of goods to the Ukrainian market among European Union countries.
This is evidenced by an analysis by the Polish state bank Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego (BGK), prepared on the basis of Eurostat statistics. The results of the study were published on October 19 by Bankier.pl.
According to BGK data, the volume of Polish exports to Ukraine reached 14.1 billion euros, while imports from Ukraine amounted to 4.4 billion euros.
For comparison, at the end of 2020 the corresponding figures were 5.2 billion and 2.5 billion euros. Thus, since then Polish exports have increased by about 169%, and imports of Ukrainian products by 72%.
Due to the significant difference in trade growth rates, Poland's positive balance increased from 2.7 billion to 9.7 billion euros. This is the highest result for the entire period covered by the study.
BGK clarifies that the indicators are calculated as sums over the last 12 months. Therefore, they do not reflect trade turnover for May alone or for the first five months of 2026.
Poland became the main supplier of goods to Ukraine among EU countries
Poland's share in total EU exports to Ukraine increased from 22.7% at the end of 2020 to 29.5% in May 2026.
Second place among European exporters is occupied by Germany with a share of 18.5%. Next are Hungary, the Czech Republic and Italy.
At the same time, the Ukrainian market is becoming increasingly important for the Polish economy. While at the end of 2020 Ukraine accounted for 2.2% of Polish merchandise exports, in May 2026 this indicator reached 3.8%.
After relative stabilization of external supplies in the second half of 2025, Polish companies again increased sales on the Ukrainian market in early 2026.
Exports of energy and defense goods grew the most
According to BGK estimates, more than half of the increase in Polish exports to Ukraine after the start of the full-scale war was provided by three product groups: energy resources and electricity, weapons and ammunition, and aviation equipment.
Together, these categories accounted for approximately 53.4% of export growth in the period from February 2022 to May 2026.
Energy goods supplies increased especially noticeably. Their value grew from 100 million euros at the end of 2020 to 2.7 billion euros. The share of this category in Polish exports to Ukraine rose from 1.9% to 19.5%.
Weapons, ammunition and aviation products together accounted for about 12.5% of the value of Polish goods supplies to Ukraine.
At the same time, the largest category of Polish exports remains industrial goods not directly related to military needs.
Their exports increased from 4.3 billion to 8 billion euros. This includes, in particular, telecommunications equipment, automobiles, electrical equipment, machinery and fertilizers.
It is this category that formed more than half of Poland's positive trade balance with Ukraine - approximately 5.1 billion euros.
Ukrainian agricultural exports remain an exception
Despite the significant overall advantage of Polish exports, in trade in agricultural and food products the situation is different.
This is the only one of the main goods categories in which Poland maintains a trade deficit with Ukraine.
According to BGK data, its size decreased from over 1.6 billion euros in March 2023 to about 309 million euros in May 2026.
The largest contribution to this deficit was made by supplies from Ukraine of vegetable oils, fats and animal feed.
At the same time, the value of Polish imports of Ukrainian agricultural products decreased from over 2.5 billion euros at the peak in March 2023 to about 1.4 billion euros in May 2026.
Poland remains one of Ukraine's main trading partners
As previously reported by Kurs.com.ua with reference to the State Customs Service, in January-September 2026 Poland occupied the second place among suppliers of imported goods to Ukraine after China.
At the same time, Poland was the largest sales market for Ukrainian products: in nine months, Ukrainian exports to this country amounted to almost $3.7 billion.
The indicators of the Ukrainian customs and BGK cover different periods and use different methods of aggregating, so their sums should not be directly compared.
The BGK study shows that during the years of full-scale war, trade ties between the countries expanded significantly. At the same time, Polish supplies grew faster than Ukrainian exports to Poland, increasing the imbalance of bilateral trade.
Based on materials from: Bankier.pl, BGK, Monitor Spraw Ukraińskich
