Pork in Ukraine may become significantly more expensive in 2027. Due to the spread of African swine fever, producers warn of a possible shortage of animals for processing. According to their forecast, purchase prices may exceed 100 hryvnias per kilogram of live weight.

At the same time, the market currently shows almost the opposite situation: in some regions, pigs are sold cheaper due to an excess of supply. Why may meat become more expensive if today purchase prices remain relatively low?

Such a forecast was published on October 23 by the association "Meat Industry". Its analysts believe that the consequences of the spread of the dangerous disease may manifest themselves especially strongly in about a year.

Why Ukraine faces a pork shortage

The main reason for concern is African swine fever (ASF). This is a contagious viral disease of domestic and wild pigs that can cause mass death of animals.

When the disease is detected, quarantine restrictions are introduced, and affected farms may lose a significant part of the herd. Restoring production requires time and significant costs.

According to the association, in regions where ASF is spreading, there is currently an excess supply of live pigs. Because of this, purchase prices continue to decline.

But in the long term, the situation may change. If the disease leads to a significant reduction in the herd, the supply of animals will decrease, and the price of pork will begin to rise.

That is why industry representatives warn of a possible shortage in 2027.

According to their estimate, purchase prices may significantly exceed 100 hryvnias per kilogram. However, this refers to the live weight of animals, not the price of pork in a store.

The cost of meat on the shelf also depends on processing, transportation, storage, and trade margins. Therefore, the industry forecast cannot be directly recalculated into retail prices.

What is happening with pork prices now

In the week from October 19 to 25, the association predicted purchase prices for live pigs at the level of 68–69 hryvnias per kilogram.

For next week, from October 26 to November 1, an increase to 72–73 hryvnias is expected. This is about 6% more.

However, the situation varies across the country. Where outbreaks of African swine fever are recorded, purchase prices may continue to fall.

Overall, over the previous four weeks, the forecast price of live pigs fell from 82–83 to 68–69 hryvnias per kilogram. The market is simultaneously pressured by excess supply and imported products.

Thus, a sharp rise in prices remains a forecast for the future, not an established situation in Ukrainian stores yet.

There are fewer pigs, but not on all farms

Statistics confirm a reduction in the overall herd, although the situation is ambiguous.

According to data from the State Statistics Service, for January–August 2026, the number of pigs in Ukraine decreased by 3.7% compared to the same period last year – to 4.64 million heads.

The reduction is especially noticeable in household farms: the herd there decreased by a quarter, to 1.26 million animals.

But on large agricultural enterprises, the opposite trend is observed. The number of pigs increased by 7.3% and reached 3.37 million.

This is an important detail: despite losses of small farms, industrial pig farming is still increasing the herd.

Therefore, the overall reduction in the number of animals does not yet mean that Ukraine will necessarily face an acute shortage of pork next year.

Can imports restrain the rise in meat prices?

Another factor affecting prices is pork supplies from abroad.

According to data from the State Customs Service, in January–September 2026, Ukraine imported 31.2 thousand tons of pork. This is 49.3% more than in the same period last year.

The main suppliers were Denmark, Germany, and Poland. The total cost of imported meat reached 75 million dollars.

Additional supplies help meet domestic demand and restrain price growth. If production in Ukraine decreases, imports may partially compensate for the shortage of meat.

However, much will depend on the cost of products in Europe, the exchange rate, and transportation costs.

Is African swine fever dangerous for humans?

Despite its name, African swine fever does not pose a threat to human health.

As explained by the World Organisation for Animal Health, humans do not contract ASF through contact with pigs or consumption of pork.

But for animals, the disease is extremely dangerous. In severe cases, mortality can reach 100%, and outbreaks lead to significant economic losses and quarantine restrictions.

At the same time, veterinary control remains mandatory: infected animals must not enter the food chain, and products containing the virus can contribute to the spread of the disease among pigs.

Should Ukrainians prepare for a rise in pork prices?

So far, there is no basis to consider a shortage inevitable. The warning from the "Meat Industry" association is a forecast based on the risks of further spread of African swine fever.

On the one hand, the disease can indeed reduce production and lead to price increases. On the other hand, large farms are still increasing the herd, and pork imports have noticeably grown.

For consumers, the main indicator will not be a single change in purchase prices, but a steady reduction in meat supply and an increase in the price of pork in stores.

Thus, a significant price increase in 2027 remains a possible scenario. How realistic it is will depend primarily on the spread of the disease, the state of Ukrainian farms, and import volumes.

Sources: association "Meat Industry" forecast dated October 23, 2026; AgroTimes – pig herd statistics; AgroTimes – pork import data; World Organisation for Animal Health.