Russia dropped from third to fourth place among the world's largest exporters of non-coking coal, which is primarily used in power generation. In the first nine months of 2026, Russian supplies shrank by almost one-fifth, with the steepest losses in the Chinese and Turkish markets.

This was reported by Russian media, citing research from analytics company BigMint.

According to analysts, in January–September Russia exported 42.5 million tons of non-coking coal, 18.6% less than in the same period last year. This is the deepest decline among the world's leading suppliers.

Third place in the global ranking went to South Africa, which increased exports by 8% to 52.1 million tons. Indonesia remains the leader with 240.3 million tons, although its supplies fell by 10%. Australia holds second place, having boosted exports by 2% to 151.2 million tons.

The main reason for Russia's deteriorating position was reduced purchases by two large importers. Supplies to Turkey dropped 32% to 15.7 million tons, and to China 26% to 15.1 million tons.

In China, Russian suppliers faced high fuel inventories and increased competition from Mongolia. According to BigMint, Mongolian exports of non-coking coal grew by 73% in nine months to 24 million tons.

In Turkey, demand for coal for power plants declined. Additional difficulties come from rising sea freight costs, insurance, and elevated shipping risks, prompting local buyers to seek alternative suppliers.

The only major destination where Russia managed to boost sales was India. Exports to that country increased by 63% to 9.6 million tons, exceeding the full-year 2025 result.

Analysts attribute growth in Indian purchases to price discounts from Russian suppliers. However, the additional volumes could not offset losses in China and Turkey. Further increases in logistics costs could reduce the attractiveness of Russian coal for Indian buyers as well.

Russian exporters are also having to reroute supplies due to growing risks in southern ports. Diverting cargoes through northwestern and Far Eastern ports raises rail transportation costs and lowers profitability.

Meanwhile, world trade in non-coking coal is contracting. BigMint estimates its volume fell by 3.2% in January–September to 602.5 million tons. Russian exports are declining much faster than the global market.

Analysts forecast that for the full year 2026, global trade in this type of coal could shrink by 2–3% to 829–836 million tons.

The International Energy Agency also expects further weakening of world trade in thermal coal in 2027. The main factor will remain weak import demand in China, while Russian exporters additionally face sanctions and logistical constraints.

That said, the cited BigMint statistics refer specifically to non-coking coal, not all Russian coal exports. According to Kpler, seaborne shipments of all types of Russian coal in the nine months actually rose by 7.25% to 135.86 million tons. These figures cover different product categories, so they cannot be directly compared.

Based on: The Insider, International Energy Agency