The NBU raised its key policy rate again

Today, Thursday, October 29, the seventh meeting of the Board of the National Bank of Ukraine on monetary policy this year took place, at which a decision was made to raise the NBU key policy rate by 0.5%, to 16.5% per annum, effective October 30, 2026.

This was announced at a press conference of the NBU leadership by the Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine, Andriy Pyshnyi.

The 16% rate had been in effect since September 18, 2026.

The NBU Governor noted that price pressure had increased significantly due to Russian attacks on businesses and logistics and the rise in fuel costs. In recent months, inflation continued to rise and noticeably exceeded the previous NBU forecast. In September, headline inflation accelerated to 10% year-on-year, and core inflation to 8.8% year-on-year. The inflation forecast for 2027 has been raised to 12.5%.

The NBU forecast envisages receipt in 2026 of about USD 50 billion in direct budget support and over USD 32 billion for the defense component of the Ukraine Support Loan program. In 2027, inflows of about USD 52 billion and USD 37 billion, respectively, are assumed. Such volumes of assistance will make it possible to finance substantial budget needs and maintain international reserves at a comfortable level (over USD 62 billion in 2026-2027). To maintain the attractiveness of hryvnia assets, foreign exchange market stability, controllability of expectations, and gradual bringing of inflation to the 5% target over the policy horizon, the NBU Board decided to raise the key policy rate by 0.5 percentage points to 16.5% per annum.

Foreign exchange market reaction

After 14:00, quotations of the cashless dollar on the interbank foreign exchange market continued to decline and by 15:00 fell to UAH 45.42 on the bid side. Compared to the historical maximum of the cashless dollar [27.10.2026 – UAH 45.707 on the bid side - Ed.], the cashless dollar fell by almost 29 kopiykas.

There is no noticeable reaction of the cash market so far, but the rise has stopped. In the capital, the dollar is being sold at UAH 46.40.