The National Bank of Ukraine has significantly worsened its economic development forecast for 2026-2027 due to intensified Russian attacks on industrial enterprises, destruction of logistics infrastructure, and blockade of seaports. While as recently as summer the regulator expected economic growth, it now forecasts a 0.4% contraction in Ukraine's real GDP in 2026.
This is stated in the NBU press release published on October 29.
In July, the National Bank forecasted 1.8% growth for the Ukrainian economy in 2026. Thus, over three months, the assessment of annual GDP dynamics worsened by 2.2 percentage points. The reason was a much larger than expected impact of Russian shelling on production and exports.
According to the regulator's preliminary estimate, in the third quarter of 2026, Ukraine's real GDP contracted by 0.5% compared to the same period last year. The greatest losses were incurred by metallurgical and ore enterprises, whose activities depend on the stable operation of production facilities and transport routes.
The situation has also deteriorated in other sectors of the economy, including industry, trade, and agriculture. Destruction of warehouses, production facilities, and transport infrastructure limits the ability of enterprises to produce goods and deliver them to customers.
The NBU estimates the negative contribution of Russian shelling to GDP dynamics this year at 1.9 percentage points. In the July forecast, the regulator estimated this impact at 0.9 percentage points. Therefore, over the past three months, the estimated scale of losses to economic growth has more than doubled.
A separate problem remains the blockade of seaports, which complicates the export of Ukrainian products. This most affects enterprises in the metallurgical and mining sectors, for which maritime logistics is an important channel for supplying goods to foreign markets.
The National Bank also significantly lowered its economic growth forecast for 2027 from 2.8% to 0.4%. This scenario assumes a gradual improvement in domestic and export logistics from approximately the middle of next year. If these conditions are not met, the recovery of economic activity may turn out weaker than forecast.
Support for the economy, according to NBU expectations, should come from public and private investments in the defense industry, expansion of weapons production in Ukraine through international financing, and reconstruction of critical infrastructure.
However, the consequences of the destruction already caused will limit recovery for a long time. Even with a gradual reduction in security risks, the National Bank expects economic growth to accelerate to 2.2% only in 2028.
Thus, the prospects of the Ukrainian economy increasingly depend not only on the amount of international assistance but also on the ability to keep industrial enterprises operating and restore transport routes. Further Russian strikes remain one of the main risks to production, exports, and investment.
Sources: National Bank of Ukraine, NBU Inflation Report, July 2026
