Germany approached the November 1 deadline with gas reserves below the established level. Industry associations suggest strengthening suppliers' obligations to build reserves. For residents and businesses, the main question is how reliable supplies will be during frosts and how much additional purchases will cost.

INES, the association of German gas storage operators, reported the failure to meet the November 1 requirements. According to its data, total fill level is 61.5%. The association of transmission system operators FNB Gas also stated that the required storage level was not achieved.

There is no single requirement to fill each storage facility to 71%. For most facilities, the standard for November 1 is 80%, with an exception for six facilities — 45%. Taking into account differences in their capacities, FNB Gas estimates the average national target at about 71%. The actual figure is about 9.5 percentage points below that.

Low reserves were known earlier: Kurs reported on this on October 26. Now the deadline has arrived and industry associations confirmed that requirements are not met everywhere.

The problem is not only the amount of fuel stored but also the speed of its delivery to consumers. A joint document by INES and FNB Gas states: when fill level drops, pressure in storage facilities falls, and with it the maximum available gas withdrawal capacity. This becomes especially important towards the end of a cold winter.

According to the associations' estimate, on very cold days gas consumption could be roughly twice the volumes supplied from Norway, the Netherlands, Belgium and through LNG terminals. Storage must cover the difference. This is a calculation for peak demand, not a report of an existing gas shortage.

Meanwhile, the German regulator Bundesnetzagentur assesses the current gas supply as stable and the risk of a tense situation as low. It emphasizes that supply reliability depends simultaneously on reserves, pipeline imports, LNG deliveries, infrastructure and consumption. Reliability of gas supply cannot be judged by storage fill level alone.

For Ukrainian families living in Germany, this means there is no reason to consider heating outages inevitable. For businesses and suppliers, another risk remains: if sudden gas purchases are needed in winter, costs will depend on market prices at that time. Missing reserves by itself does not set a new price in household bills.

INES and FNB Gas propose obliging suppliers to maintain certain gas volumes in storage by February 1 to ensure sufficient withdrawal capacity until the end of winter. The joint document considers developing this mechanism for preparation for the 2027/28 season. So far this is a proposal by industry associations, not an already imposed obligation.

For Ukraine, the situation matters through the cost of additional purchases on the European market. Naftogaz on October 22 reported on preparing 24 winter scenarios and the need to contract additional gas volumes in advance. If winter demand in Europe raises market prices, new purchases may require more funds.

Based on materials from: INES, FNB Gas, joint document of the associations, Bundesnetzagentur.