France is finding it increasingly difficult to halt the growth of its public debt amid a weak economy and expensive borrowing. On 30 October, Fitch changed the outlook on the country's credit rating from stable to negative, while keeping the rating itself at A+.

The decision is corroborated by data from the French debt agency Agence France Trésor. A negative outlook means an elevated risk of a subsequent downgrade, but is not a downgrade that has already occurred.

Fitch estimates that France's public debt could rise to around 124% of gross domestic product by 2028. As Reuters reports, the agency links the worsening outlook to weaker economic growth, higher borrowing costs and a widening budget deficit.

An additional problem is political disagreements and social tensions, which, in Fitch's view, make a sustained reduction of the deficit difficult. The government has had to seek support for budget decisions amid protests over the high cost of living and the state of public services.

Economic statistics also show weak growth. According to a first estimate by the French statistical institute INSEE, GDP fell by 0.1% in the third quarter of 2026 compared with the previous quarter, after no growth in the second. Investment fell again and exports declined.

Interest costs are particularly sensitive for the budget. According to Dow Jones, Fitch expects them to increase from 2.5% of GDP in 2025 to 3.3% in 2028. This is money the state spends on servicing debt, separate from its repayment.

This creates additional pressure on public finances: as long as high rates persist, new borrowing and rolling over maturing debt become more expensive. The more money is needed for interest, the harder it is to simultaneously fund public services and reduce the budget deficit.

For families living in France, including Ukrainians, the practical significance lies precisely in the further choice of budget priorities. The rating agency's decision does not by itself change taxes or benefits, but it reflects the difficulties against which the authorities are discussing public spending.

Minister of Economy and Finance Roland Lescure stated that Fitch's assessment confirms the need to adopt by the end of the year a budget providing for a deficit reduction to 5% of GDP. The agency itself, according to Dow Jones, forecasts a 2027 deficit of 5.5% of GDP, given weaker growth and the risk of concessions during budget negotiations.

At the same time, Fitch keeps the A+ rating, citing France's large and diversified economy, strong institutions, eurozone membership and a resilient banking system. The next scheduled decision by S&P Global Ratings on France is expected on 27 November, according to the Agence France Trésor calendar.

Based on materials from: Agence France Trésor, Reuters, Dow Jones, INSEE.