Ukrainian enterprises in October 2026 worsened their assessments of economic activity amid intensifying Russian attacks, renewed power outages and rising production costs. Sentiment deteriorated the most in the construction sector, where companies expect a reduction in work volumes and new orders.
This is evidenced by the results of the monthly survey of enterprises, which the National Bank of Ukraine released on November 2.
The Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI) in October fell to 47.1 points from 48.2 in September. In October 2025, the indicator stood at 50.3 points.
An index value below 50 points indicates a predominance of negative assessments of current business activity among surveyed companies. However, the indicator does not directly reflect the pace of change in production or gross domestic product.
According to the NBU, the main factors behind the deterioration in business sentiment were Russian strikes on energy, production, warehouse and logistics infrastructure, renewed power outages, rising fuel prices, export problems due to port blockages, and a shortage of skilled workers.
At the same time, economic activity was supported by stable consumer demand, a high harvest, sufficient supply of goods, and the development of alternative logistics routes.
Construction companies' expectations worsened the most
Construction enterprises showed the lowest indicator among all surveyed sectors. Their business activity index fell to 38.5 points compared to 48.8 in September and 53.3 in October last year.
The sentiment of construction companies was affected by the further suspension of state funding for road and infrastructure restoration, a shortage of skilled personnel, and a seasonal decline in activity.
Builders expect a significant reduction in the volume of completed work, the number of new orders, and purchases of raw materials and supplies. They also forecast a decrease in the volume of orders for contractor services, although the cost of such services, according to their estimates, will continue to rise.
A separate problem remains the availability of contracting organizations, the assessments of which also worsened.
Industry moved to negative assessments
In industry, the sectoral index dropped to 48 points from 51 points in September. In October 2025, it stood at 48.8 points.
Unlike the previous month, industrial enterprises expect a reduction in new orders, including export orders, as well as a decrease in stocks of raw materials and supplies.
At the same time, producers retained positive assessments of production volumes, although the pace of expected growth slowed.
Among the main problems of industry, the NBU cites damage to production facilities, energy shortages, and limited export opportunities through seaports.
Trade and services remain in the zone of cautious expectations
Trading enterprises have negatively assessed their performance for the third consecutive month, although in October their sentiment slightly improved.
The trade index stood at 46.8 points against 45.9 in September. For comparison, a year ago the indicator reached 54.3 points.
Companies expect a further reduction in trade turnover and purchases of goods for sale, as well as a decrease in warehouse stocks and trade margins.
The main restraining factors remain the destruction of warehouse complexes, high transportation and storage costs.
In the services sector, the index remained almost unchanged - 47.4 points against 47.3 in September. However, enterprises began to expect a decrease in the volume of services provided and continue to forecast a reduction in new orders.
Businesses prepare for price increases and staff reductions
Most surveyed companies expect high rates of price increases for raw materials, supplies and purchased goods. This will also affect the prices of their own products.
The exception was the services sector, whose representatives forecast a slowdown in the growth of purchase prices and tariffs for their own services.
At the same time, managers of enterprises in all four sectors expect a reduction in the number of employees. Construction companies were the most pessimistic on this issue.
The NBU notes that the situation on the labor market remains unstable. The shortage of qualified personnel continues to limit the capabilities of enterprises, despite their plans to reduce staff.
The NBU survey was conducted from October 5 to 22, 2026. It involved 587 enterprises, of which 41.9% represent industry, 26.9% - services, 25% - trade and 6.1% - construction.
The National Bank emphasizes that the survey results reflect the assessments and expectations of business leaders, not the official forecast of the regulator.
The next survey results, for November 2026, the NBU plans to release on the first business day of December.
Based on materials from: National Bank of Ukraine, monthly survey of enterprises for October 2026
