World oil prices on November 4 show unstable dynamics after two days of decline. Investors are assessing conflicting signals regarding the possible end of the war between the US and Iran. New diplomatic initiatives support expectations of de-escalation, but significant differences between Washington and Tehran do not yet allow talking about an approaching peace agreement.
According to Bloomberg, on the morning of November 4, Brent oil traded near $104 per barrel, while American WTI was around $97.
The day before, volatility in the oil market sharply increased. On Tuesday, fluctuations in Brent quotes exceeded $6 per barrel, as traders reacted to every new report about negotiations.
At the beginning of the week, prices collapsed by more than 7% after information appeared about Iran's readiness to consider a diplomatic path to end the conflict. Investors began to reduce the risk premium for supply disruptions of oil from the Persian Gulf embedded in quotations.
However, subsequent reports showed that the positions of the parties remain far from agreement.
Qatar, which acts as a mediator between the US and Iran, confirmed that both countries are considering new proposals for resolving the conflict.
According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Qatar, a delegation of mediators held talks in Tehran that lasted about three hours. The parties exchanged proposals aimed at reducing differences between Washington and Tehran.
Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari noted that the negotiation process is ongoing, but it is not yet possible to talk about a concrete breakthrough.
Investor optimism was also weakened by statements from Iranian leadership. The Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council said that the United States' response to Tehran's demands is not currently satisfactory.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump made it clear that Washington does not plan an immediate new large-scale strike on Iran.
In an interview with the Financial Times on November 3, Trump said the United States is ready for further military action if necessary, but does not rule out the possibility of avoiding a new escalation.
The president also claimed that more oil currently passes through the Strait of Hormuz than before the war, and the American blockade of Iranian ports weakens Tehran's economy. He did not provide independent data confirming his comparison of transport volumes.
For the oil market, the key issue remains the security of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. This route is of strategic importance for energy exports from Persian Gulf countries. The threat of new attacks on tankers, port infrastructure, or oil facilities can quickly return a higher geopolitical premium to quotations.
Conversely, real agreements between the US and Iran could ease concerns about supply shortages and create conditions for further price declines.
For Ukraine, the dynamics of the world oil market are important primarily because of the cost of imported petroleum products. A sustained drop in oil prices could gradually reduce the procurement cost of gasoline and diesel fuel, affecting the expenses of carriers, agricultural enterprises, and other fuel consumers. However, changes in world quotes do not necessarily immediately reflect at Ukrainian gas stations.
In the near future, investors will monitor the results of Qatar's mediation, the position of the US administration, and the situation with shipping in the Persian Gulf. Until negotiations result in concrete agreements, the oil market remains sensitive to new political and military signals.
Source: Bloomberg, Qatar Foreign Ministry, Financial Times
