The Ukrainian economy contracted again in the third quarter of 2026 after slight growth in the spring. Real gross domestic product (GDP) fell both compared to the previous quarter and relative to the same period last year. Moreover, the decline was somewhat deeper than previously estimated by the National Bank of Ukraine.
This is evidenced by the operational estimate of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, published on November 4.
According to the State Statistics Service, in July-September 2026, Ukraine's real GDP contracted by 0.7% compared to the third quarter of 2025.
At the same time, compared to the second quarter of the current year, the economy decreased by 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis. This method of calculation makes it possible to assess the change in economic activity without the influence of regular seasonal fluctuations.
For comparison, in the second quarter of 2026, the Ukrainian economy showed slight growth: by 0.4% in annual terms and by 0.3% compared to the previous quarter, seasonally adjusted.
The new figures from the State Statistics Service also turned out to be worse than the previous estimate of the National Bank.
At the end of October, the NBU estimated the contraction of real GDP in the third quarter at 0.5% compared to the same period last year. Thus, the operational estimate of the State Statistics Service showed a decline larger by 0.2 percentage points.
It was previously reported that the National Bank significantly worsened its forecast for Ukraine's economic development for 2026. Instead of the growth of 1.8% expected in the summer, the regulator now forecasts a contraction of real GDP by 0.4% for the year.
The NBU associated the worsening economic prospects with the intensification of Russian attacks on industrial enterprises, the destruction of logistics infrastructure, and restrictions on exports through seaports. According to the regulator, the greatest negative impact is felt by metallurgical and mining enterprises.
At the same time, in the October forecast, the International Monetary Fund still expected Ukraine's GDP to grow by 1% in 2026. However, this forecast was published before the latest revision of the National Bank's estimates.
The State Statistics Service emphasizes that the published figures are still an operational estimate based on preliminary statistical information on the activities of various sectors of the economy.
Updated preliminary data on GDP for the third quarter of 2026 are planned to be published in December. After receiving additional statistical information, the current figures may be revised.
