The intensification of Russian attacks on Ukrainian enterprises and infrastructure, along with the blockade of seaports, will cause significant losses to Ukraine's foreign trade. According to the National Bank's estimate, these factors will worsen the country's foreign trade balance by $6.6 billion. The largest negative impact is expected from a reduction in agricultural exports.
The NBU provided this estimate in its October Inflation Report, published on November 5.
According to the regulator's calculations, the cumulative negative effect of intensified shelling and port blockade in the third and fourth quarters will lead to a deterioration of Ukraine's foreign trade balance by $6.6 billion.
This refers to the estimated impact of these factors on foreign trade, not the already recorded direct losses of enterprises. The main reason for the deterioration will be a reduction in exports, primarily agricultural products.
Blocking maritime logistics complicates the export of Ukrainian goods abroad. At the same time, Russian strikes damage production facilities, warehouse complexes, and transport infrastructure, limiting enterprises' ability to produce and supply products.
The consequences of the attacks are felt not only in foreign trade. According to NBU calculations, due to intensified shelling and logistical restrictions, Ukraine's real GDP in 2026 will be 1.9 percentage points lower than it could have been in the absence of these factors.
In addition, the destruction of enterprises and logistics increases inflationary pressure. According to the National Bank's estimate, they will add about 0.7 percentage points to the annual inflation rate.
Damage to production infrastructure and disruption of goods supply increase business costs. Enterprises are forced to pass part of these costs onto consumers, which further affects prices.
The NBU notes that the negative consequences of Russian attacks will persist in 2027. The destruction of industrial facilities, energy and transport infrastructure will limit economic recovery opportunities even with a gradual improvement in the situation.
The National Bank expects Ukraine's real GDP to decline by 0.4% in 2026. In 2027, a slight economic growth of 0.4% is forecast, and in 2028 - by 2.2%.
This forecast is based, in particular, on the assumption of improved logistics from mid-2027, continued international financial support, and a gradual reduction in security risks by the end of the forecast period.
Meanwhile, inflation, according to the regulator's expectations, will accelerate to 12.5% by the end of 2026. In 2027, it should slow to 7.3%, and in 2028 - return to the target level of 5%.
The NBU emphasizes that the risks of new destruction remain high. Further attacks on energy, enterprises, and logistics facilities may lead to additional losses and worsening macroeconomic indicators.
Source: National Bank of Ukraine
