Dollar ended August with a sharp decline on the interbank market: what to expect from the exchange rate in September

On Tuesday, September 1, the National Bank set the following official exchange rates: - US dollar – 44.5249 UAH (-0.0256 UAH to the official rate for Monday, August 31); - euro – 51.6369 UAH (-0.2435 UAH to the official rate for Monday, August 31).

Rates were set at 16:00 on August 31 and reflect the following trends:

1. The last day of the month on the interbank foreign exchange market was marked by a decline in activity of both buyers and sellers of non-cash currency. Therefore, the first half of Monday's trading session (approximately until 13:00) took place in a narrow range of 44.54-44.59 UAH. The average deal price at 12:00 was 44.5695 UAH. However, after 13:00, the National Bank increased the volume of its currency intervention, while there were few willing to buy currency. As a result, the dollar briefly fell to 44.30 UAH on the "bid" position - the minimum since June 3, 2026. The average deal price by the end of the day fell, and the National Bank was forced to lower the official dollar rate for Tuesday by 2.5 kopecks.

2. The speech by US Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh at the symposium in the American town of Jackson Hole last Friday triggered a sharp rise in the US dollar on the international FOREX market against major world currencies. The euro fell to 1.1576 dollars, after which it went up again. At the time of fixing, the euro was sold at 1.15973 dollars – 48 points lower than last Friday (1.16453 dollars), so the NBU lowered the official euro rate for Tuesday by 24.3 kopecks.

The cash market reacted to the interbank collapse with a decline, but here price tags fell not so significantly. In the capital, the dollar fell by 7 kopecks (to 44.71-44.72 UAH), in other cities the reaction was less pronounced. Thus, in Kharkiv and Lviv the dollar fell by 2 kopecks, in Dnipro – by 3 kopecks, and in Odessa the price tag remained unchanged.

The proximity of autumn (when demand for cash currency traditionally grows), the sharp deterioration of the Ukrainian economy and problems with exports – all these factors are playing against the national currency. According to cash market operators, already in September the dollar will start to rise in price again.