Petraeus: Ukraine is transitioning to autonomous warfare, and drones are changing the role of tanks

In Ukraine, experiments are already underway with combat systems that, after launch, are capable of independently moving toward a target without further operator intervention. At the same time, the massive use of drones has changed the battlefield so much that classic large-scale armored advances under normal visibility have become extremely difficult.

This was stated by former CIA director and ex-commander of US and NATO forces David Petraeus in an interview with RBC-Ukraine.

According to him, Ukraine is already conducting experiments with truly autonomous systems: after launch, the device can move toward a designated target without constant human control. Petraeus expects that during the second half of 2026, the number of such systems on the battlefield will increase significantly.

The next stage, in his assessment, will be the combination of autonomy with new launch systems. Instead of teams of operators who directly launch each drone, remotely controlled automated platforms may be increasingly used. This will partially solve one of the current problems — the dependence of the scale of UAV use on the number of trained pilots and launch speed.

Petraeus noted that the Defense Forces currently use over 10,000 drones of various types per day. According to his estimate, Ukraine can produce about 8 million unmanned aerial vehicles within a year.

Official data also indicates a corresponding scale of the industry. The National Security and Defense Council reported back in early 2026 that the production capacity of the Ukrainian defense industry exceeds 8 million FPV drones per year, and more than 160 companies are engaged in their production.

At the same time, elements of autonomy are already being used in real combat conditions. In June, the Ministry of Defense reported on a Ukrainian interceptor drone, the development of which automates about 95% of the process — from launch to destruction of a Russian strike UAV. At that time, the system had already passed combat testing in the Kharkiv region.

The massive proliferation of drones, according to Petraeus, has simultaneously radically changed the use of traditional ground equipment. He estimates the depth of the so-called kill zone in certain areas of the front at approximately 25-35 km.

In this zone, under normal visibility, it is practically impossible to conduct large-scale movement of armored vehicles undetected. Reconnaissance drones detect targets, after which FPV or bomber drones are quickly directed at them.

Even modern tank protection, in Petraeus's opinion, does not eliminate the problem. First, drones can deprive the vehicle of mobility by damaging the running gear, after which stationary equipment is much easier to destroy with repeated strikes.

Because of this, armored vehicles get more room for maneuver mainly under conditions when drone operation is significantly complicated — for example, in thick fog or during heavy snowstorms. Petraeus notes that Russian troops take this into account and prepare tanks for use precisely in such time windows.

Changes have also affected artillery. In the American general's opinion, it no longer plays as central a role as it did a year and a half to two years ago. To operate near the drone kill zone, artillery systems need carefully concealed positions, decoys, and the ability to quickly leave the area after a few salvoes.

A similar trend was previously recorded by the NSDC: the massive use of FPV drones has made it possible to create kill zones in certain directions that significantly limit the movement of heavy equipment and enemy transport.

Petraeus believes this is only the beginning of a transition to a new type of war. In the future, reconnaissance, command and control, targeting, and strike systems will increasingly work as a single automated complex, while the role of humans will gradually shift from direct control of each device to monitoring the operation of an entire network of autonomous systems.

Based on materials from: RBC-Ukraine, Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, NSDC of Ukraine