Danish intelligence: Russia suffers heavy losses for marginal advances

Russia is under the strongest pressure since the start of its full-scale war against Ukraine: its troops are suffering heavy losses for minor territorial gains, and the economy is approaching a serious crisis. This is the conclusion of the Danish Military Intelligence Service (DDIS).

The Danish intelligence assessment was reported by Axios. The DDIS report itself was published on September 24.

According to the intelligence assessment, total Russian troop losses have exceeded 1 million since the start of the full-scale invasion. Moreover, the loss rate over the summer was higher than Russia's ability to recruit new servicemen.

Despite the scale of resources deployed, Danish intelligence does not expect a major Russian breakthrough in Ukraine in the next six months. The advance of Russian forces remains limited relative to the losses incurred.

Additional pressure on Russia is created by Ukrainian long-range strikes on targets deep inside Russian territory. DDIS believes these are increasingly affecting the infrastructure and resources Moscow needs to continue the war.

At the same time, the economic situation is deteriorating. Intelligence links this to high war spending, international sanctions, and Ukrainian strikes on Russia's energy infrastructure. The report speaks of the Russian economy approaching a “serious crisis.”

However, pressure on Russia does not mean a reduction in risks for European countries. On the contrary, Danish intelligence expects Moscow to increasingly use hybrid methods against NATO and Western states in the coming months — cyberattacks, sabotage, and other operations.

DDIS also notes a growing Russian willingness to take risks. Among recent episodes, the intelligence mentions violations of NATO airspace by Russian drones and missiles, as well as dangerous actions by Russian warships in the Baltic Sea.

The likelihood of a limited military attack by Russia on one or more neighboring NATO countries is assessed by Danish intelligence as low but rising. Potential scenarios include isolated strikes on infrastructure used to support Ukraine or limited military provocations.

At the same time, DDIS sees no signs of Russia preparing a full-scale invasion of a NATO country and considers such a scenario unlikely. Last week, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte also cited this assessment, saying Russia understands NATO's ability to defend the territory of its members.

Danish intelligence considers further economic and military support for Ukraine by Western states to be one of the key factors capable of deterring Russian forces and raising the cost of continuing the war for Moscow.