Ukraine will not be able to compensate metallurgy losses by increasing ore exports - media
The shutdown of large metallurgical enterprises in Ukraine cannot be fully compensated by increased iron ore exports. The main obstacle remains limited port and land logistics capacity, already under heavy strain due to Russian attacks.
This is according to a Forbes Ukraine article about the consequences of the massive shutdown of the Ukrainian mining and metals complex.
According to the publication, after a series of Russian strikes, about 90% of Ukrainian steel production is currently idled. Since the beginning of 2026, key enterprises in the sector suffered at least 30 attacks, with seven blast furnaces damaged or destroyed.
One possible way to partially compensate for the losses could be increased exports of iron ore and concentrate. However, there is no physical capacity to quickly redirect such volumes to foreign markets.
The biggest problem is maritime logistics. After intensified Russian attacks on port infrastructure, exports through Black Sea ports have become suddenly constrained. Alternative routes via the western border, Danube, and European ports are significantly more expensive and lack sufficient throughput capacity.
According to GMK Center, transporting pellets to Gdansk, Poland can cost an additional $50–60 per tonne, making a significant portion of such exports economically unviable. Even after full restoration, Danube ports can handle only a small fraction of cargo volumes that previously went through deep-water Black Sea ports.
The port of Constanta also cannot fully replace them: its capacity is limited, and shipping through Romania significantly increases transport costs.
The issue is already visible in export statistics. In January-August, Ukraine reduced foreign iron ore shipments by about 27% year-on-year to 15.8 million tonnes. Deliveries to China and Poland declined the most.
Forbes emphasizes that the consequences of the metallurgical slowdown extend far beyond the sector itself. In the negative scenario, losses to the economy could amount to 7% of GDP. Each job directly in the mining and metals sector supports up to eight jobs in adjacent sectors—transport, energy, services, and others.
The consequences could be particularly acute for industrial cities whose economies depend significantly on large metallurgical and mining enterprises.
One such example is Kryvyi Rih. The city is already preparing to cut a portion of its budget expenditures due to declining tax revenues from mining and metallurgical companies. The authorities plan to postpone a number of projects while preserving funding for critical needs.
Thus, even continuing operation of mining enterprises does not mean they can fully replace metallurgical losses via raw material exports. Without restoration of stable maritime logistics, Ukraine faces simultaneous declines in production, export revenue, and incomes of industrial cities.
Source: GMK Center, Kurs Ukrainy
