Of the 100 billion euros in aid to Ukraine announced by Germany, direct support accounts for less than half

Of the approximately 100 billion euros that the German government counted as bilateral aid to Ukraine since the start of the full-scale war, only 41.7 billion euros can be classified as direct support to the Ukrainian state. The rest mostly goes to the upkeep of Ukrainian refugees in Germany and to future commitments for military aid.

This is the conclusion reached by analysts at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), who published a new study on October 8 as part of the Ukraine Support Tracker project.

In August, the German government announced that as of June 30, 2026, the total volume of support to Ukraine exceeded 100 billion euros. Of this amount, 43.3 billion euros were classified as civilian aid, and 57.6 billion euros as military, including funds planned for the coming years.

However, a detailed analysis showed that about 80% of the declared civilian aid is actually tied to measures carried out within Germany.

Of the 43.3 billion euros in civilian support, 27.45 billion euros were spent on social benefits for Ukrainian refugees, and another 7.15 billion euros on financing their accommodation through federal states and municipalities. This category also includes 1.3 billion euros in export and investment guarantees for German companies operating in Ukraine.

Direct support to Ukraine from the civilian package, according to the researchers, amounted to only 7.4 billion euros. The largest part was used for humanitarian aid, support for the energy sector, and restoration of state institutions. Another 1 billion euros Germany provided through a special account managed by the International Monetary Fund.

Military support also turned out to be less than the total figure cited by the German government. According to experts, in 2022-2025 Germany provided about 22.7 billion euros in military aid. For 2026, the federal budget foresees another 11.6 billion euros, but how much of it has already been effectively spent is unknown.

In addition, 22 billion euros represent future commitments. Of this, 10.1 billion euros are already assumed obligations, and almost 12 billion euros potential additional expenses, permission for which is provided by budget documents.

In conclusion, the researchers managed to trace military support worth 56.3 billion euros - 1.3 billion less than the federal government declares.

It is important to note that the figure of 41.7 billion euros reflects the amount of aid that analysts classify as direct support to Ukraine, not the already transferred funds. Part of this amount includes budget appropriations for 2026, the actual use of which has not been disclosed.

The head of Ukraine Support Tracker, Christoph Trebesch, believes that presenting the entire sum as bilateral aid to Ukraine is misleading because a significant portion goes to supporting Ukrainians inside Germany itself.

At the same time he stressed that Germany remains the largest European donor to Ukraine, and the issue is above all in the lack of transparency in how state statistics are presented today.

Additional difficulties in verifying expenditure arose after June 2025, when the German government stopped giving out detailed information about military aid. Since then, Berlin continues to outline the aggregate support only, and stopped providing full lists of relevant procurement items.

Meanwhile, Germany keeps announcing new support packages for Ukraine. During his visit to Kyiv on October 4, Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced about 1 billion euros in additional military support, in particular for the production of drones and the development of air defense systems. About another 350 million euros is planned for the restoration of Ukraine's energy infrastructure ahead of winter.

These new commitments are not reflected in the government statistics as of June 30, which the Kiel Institute analyzed. At the same time, the announcement of funding programs does not presuppose that the funds have been spent entirely already or that the equipment has already been supplied to Ukraine.

Sources: Kiel Institute for the World Economy, German Federal Government, Press Office of the Chancellor of Germany