Zelensky Warns of Threat of Food Crisis Due to Blocking of Ukrainian Exports
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky has warned about the threat of a new international food crisis due to the blocking of Ukrainian agricultural exports via the Black Sea. According to his assessment, within the next two to three months grain supply problems could lead to food shortages in some countries in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East.
The head of state made the statement on 12 October during the Warsaw Security Forum while answering questions about the consequences of war and the international energy crisis.
Zelensky pointed out that world leaders are now focused on diesel fuel supply issues and rising energy prices. At the same time, the blocking of maritime trade routes creates no less serious threat to the global food market.
According to him, in two to three months, the international community may face an agricultural crisis and food shortages in countries dependent on Ukrainian agricultural exports.
The President emphasized that Ukraine supplies millions of tons of food to the markets of Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, but currently sea routes are blocked or operating with significant restrictions. He called on international partners not to focus exclusively on energy problems because disruptions in food supplies could have severe humanitarian consequences.
Ukrainian Agricultural Exports Have Declined by More Than Half from Potential Level
Zelensky's warning came against the backdrop of a massive reduction in Ukrainian agricultural exports due to Russian attacks on Black Sea ports and merchant vessels.
According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, in September the country exported only 2.4 million tons of agricultural products, or 46% of the potentially required volume. In particular, grain exports amounted to 1.4 million tons - only 38% of the potential level.
Due to limited access to deep-water ports of Greater Odesa, the main load has shifted to alternative routes. In September, 1.3 million tons of agricultural products were exported through Danube ports, 993 thousand tons by rail, and 120 thousand tons by road.
Minister of Agrarian Policy Taras Vysotsky previously explained that without full use of the Black Sea ports, Ukraine is effectively limited in its ability to export only 45-50% of the required volumes.
At the same time, alternative logistics are significantly more expensive. According to the director general of the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club, Oleh Khomenko, transporting agricultural products through the Romanian port of Constanta requires an additional 50-60 euros per ton, and through the Polish Gdańsk approximately 90 euros.
Due to additional costs, part of the Ukrainian grain loses competitiveness on foreign markets. Even the rise in wheat prices does not always compensate farmers for transport costs.
According to Khomenko, Ukraine loses up to 500 million dollars in export revenue monthly. Sales restrictions force agricultural enterprises to cut capital investments, save working capital, and revise production plans for the next season.
To increase supplies, Ukraine has proposed the European Union allocate at least 1.1 billion euros to compensate for additional logistics costs. According to Ministry of Agrarian Policy estimates, such support could enable additional exports of up to 20 million tons of agricultural products.
Attacks on Ships Have Spread Beyond Ukrainian Ports
Additional risks for international trade are created by strikes on civilian shipping in the Black Sea. They affect not only Ukrainian exports but also shipments of Russian grain and commercial vessels under the flags of third countries.
According to S&P Global, on 17-18 August near the Russian ports of Novorossiysk and Tuapse five vessels involved in grain transportation came under drone attacks. Damage to port infrastructure and threats of new strikes have forced shipowners to limit calls to Russian Black Sea ports.
At the beginning of October, attacks on merchant vessels also occurred in the western part of the Black Sea.
In particular, on 6 October, a Russian drone, according to the Odesa Regional Military Administration, damaged a commercial vessel under the flag of the Marshall Islands carrying rapeseed oil. As a result of the strike, one person was killed and seven others were injured.
On the same day, two merchant vessels were attacked in Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone. The vessel Alfa Watan under the flag of Togo sank, and Able under the flag of Palau, carrying wheat, caught fire. The crew of the second vessel was rescued.
Bulgarian authorities confirmed these incidents but at the time of the initial reports had not determined the origin of the drones. Therefore, responsibility for these attacks remains the subject of an investigation.
Global Wheat Prices Responded to Black Sea Problems
Disruptions in maritime grain supplies from Ukraine and Russia have already impacted world prices. At the end of August, wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose to about $7.61 per bushel — the highest level in three years. According to The Wall Street Journal, prices have risen by approximately 30% since late June.
Especially noticeable was the rise in grain prices for countries dependent on Black Sea supplies. According to S&P Global, on 15 September the cost of wheat with delivery to Egypt reached $316 per ton compared to $246 in July.
Such an increase is linked not only to the price of the grain itself but also to higher freight, insurance, and the need for longer routes.
At the same time, on 12 October, global wheat futures fell to about $6.70 per bushel on hopes of de-escalation after US President Donald Trump's statement about an alleged energy truce between Ukraine and Russia. However, there is currently no confirmed agreement to restore safe commercial shipping.
Moreover, the prices for wheat itself at Black Sea ports and its delivery cost to importers are moving differently. Due to weak demand and an inability to ship, export prices can decline, while buyers in other countries continue to pay more for transportation.
Greatest Risks Arise for Grain Importers
According to S&P Global, in September wheat imports to Egypt decreased by 74% year-on-year. Some buyers have delayed purchases, waiting for prices to fall or for stable supplies from the Black Sea to resume.
Logistics problems are also forcing importers to seek alternative suppliers in Australia, North America, and other regions. This increases transport costs and intensifies competition for available grain volumes.
However, the current reduction in supplies does not necessarily mean an imminent food shortage. In particular, according to S&P Global, Egypt's state wheat reserves as of early October were sufficient for about six months of consumption.
Yet prolonged blocking of Black Sea exports, rising transportation costs, and a possible reduction in future Ukrainian production could gradually worsen the situation in the international food market.
It is these risks that Zelensky highlighted during the Warsaw Security Forum. His statement about a possible crisis within two to three months is a warning about how the situation could develop, not an assertion that a large-scale global food shortage has already occurred.
Source: Volodymyr Zelensky's speech at the Warsaw Security Forum, LB.ua, The Wall Street Journal