Russian seaborne oil exports fell to their lowest level in five weeks, despite a recovery in shipments through the key Baltic port of Primorsk. Meanwhile, a sharp rise in supplies over the past week allowed Russia to raise their estimated value to a record level since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
This was reported by Bloomberg on October 27, based on tanker tracking data and industry statistics.
For the four weeks through October 25, average daily seaborne exports of Russian oil fell to 3.55 million barrels. That is 30 thousand barrels less than in the previous four-week period and the lowest figure in five weeks.
The decline occurred despite a noticeable revival of activity at the port of Primorsk near St. Petersburg. Over the past week, 12 tankers departed from there, compared with four a week earlier. Prior to that, ship traffic at the port had been interrupted for about three days, presumably due to maintenance at the terminal or the supply pipeline.
Overall, in the week through October 25, 37 tankers loaded 26.93 million barrels of Russian oil. A week earlier, 31 vessels shipped out 21.87 million barrels. Thus, weekly supplies increased by 730 thousand barrels per day, to 3.85 million barrels – the highest in a month.
However, the recovery in shipments over a single week does not yet compensate for the reduction in supplies over a longer period.
Despite a decline in the four-week average export volume, the value of Russian oil supplies over the past week rose by approximately 430 million dollars, to 2.76 billion dollars. According to Bloomberg estimates, this is the highest weekly figure since the start of the full-scale war against Ukraine.
The growth was driven by an increase in physical shipment volumes and a rise in the price of Russian ESPO crude, which has been rising for the eighth consecutive week. These factors offset a decline in prices for Russia’s main export grade, Urals.
At the same time, over a four-week average, the value of seaborne exports remained almost unchanged at approximately 2.61 billion dollars per week. This refers to the estimated gross value of shipped oil, not actual revenue to the Russian budget.
Bloomberg notes that export volumes may be affected by changes in the operations of Russian refineries. During the week through October 25, there were no reports of Ukrainian strikes on Russian refining facilities. This may have allowed Moscow to increase domestic refining and redirect some of the crude previously intended for foreign buyers to its own plants.
Additional pressure on exports is being created by the situation on the Asian market. Indian refiners are considering reducing purchases of Russian oil due to high sea freight costs and the availability of cheaper alternatives from Persian Gulf countries.
Middle Eastern oil supplies are gradually returning to levels seen before the escalation of the conflict with Iran. This intensifies competition for buyers, although the future situation depends on the security of shipping in the region.
China and India remain the largest buyers of Russian oil. At the same time, shipments to Asia, including cargoes whose final destinations have not yet been determined, decreased over the four weeks from 3.45 million to 3.42 million barrels per day.
According to Bloomberg estimates, the dynamics of Russian exports in the coming weeks will depend on the recovery of refining capacity, demand from Asian buyers, shipping costs, and the situation on the global oil market.
